European player recruiting is a game of season averages, arguably a game of early-season averages. There is a recency bias in watching basketball, but statistically, who do you think is the talk of the league for most of the season: The point guard who averages 14 points and 6 assists in the first half of the season and 8 and 3 in the second, or the guy with 8 and 3 in the first and 14 and 6 in the second?

Just because it’s fun, here is a selection of ten players who outperformed their early-season per game averages, and no — that does not necessarily mean improved performance. Players had to play 10 games before and 10 games after the 1st of February for the same club to qualify. There’s a number of players who changed teams and improved; those were not in the group of players I looked at.

(There’s more, and there’s an equal number of players who dropped post-January, but I’m not going to mention them here.)

Kyle Kuric, Estudiantes, 24.7 years, Shooting Two-Guard

Kuric played college ball in Louisville and is an Estudiantes player since summer 2012. Kuric is finishing his 2013/14 campaign strong, averaging 17.1 points per game on an otherwordly 1.21 points per possession and 45.5 percent three point shooting on over six attempts per game since the beginning of February. He had shown late-season improvement in 2012-13 already, which was largely due to an increase in playing time.

Daniel Theis, ratiopharm Ulm, 22.1 years, Mobile Power Forward/Center

Not having started playing basketball until the age of 15 but adding to his game step by step ever since, Theis is improving at a frantic pace now. The athletic 4/5 was caught struggling for playing time in a deep frontcourt rotation of Keaton Nankivil, Ian Hummer/Greg Mangano (power forward), Matt Howard and Trent Plaisted (center) early in the season but more than came through as the season progressed. Theis not just scored the ball better post-January, but rebounding also jumped in increased minutes, plus a five game stretch of nearly three blocks per game in late February/early March. Points per possession increased from 0.919 (before February) to 1.018 (since) despite just 29.6 percent three point shooting in the second half of the season. Theis has an out clause in his contract, and a move to a BBL powerhouse this summer would not shock anyone.

Clint Capela, Chalon-sur-Saone, 20.0 years, Defensive/Finishing Center

Improvement in Capela’s per game averages is a lot about playing time, but the jump in minutes is significant in itself. Not every young (especially young, “defensive”) big can go 27 minutes per game through a period of three and a half months (I would argue Jusuf Nurkic can not at this point) as Capela has done since the beginning of February. Capela’s per minute production has not collapsed with increased playing time (PPP has slightly improved from 1.052 to 1.081), except for a significant drop in blocked shots: He’s only blocking half as many shots (Oct-Jan vs Feb-May) despite playing 8 1/2 more minutes a game. A little-explored but not unusual pattern, with foul trouble considerations likely playing their part.

J’Covan Brown, KAOD, 24.3 years, Scoring Point Guard

The young American scoring guard is posting 19.8 points per game and 1.127 points per possession since the beginning of February, which is top-notch for a high-usage shot creator. Brown averaged 20 points a game in his final season in Texas but had a difficult first A1 season in Rhetymno. Brown’s grind should literally pay off this summer.

Ramon Galloway, Fraport Skyliners, 23.3 years, Scoring/Playmaking Two-Guard

A difficult rookie season for Galloway, who was released by the club (citing “disciplinary reasons”) just as he was starting to produce as a rare shot creator on this homogenous but still young and limited Frankfurt team. Arriving from Igokea in November, Galloway had produced just 5.8 points per game (0.706 PPP) in 21 minutes per game in the BBL pre-February, but posted 13.2 points per game (0.928 PPP) in 28.2 minutes per game since, showing plenty of promise.

Thomas Heurtel, Laboral Kutxa, 25.1 years, Playmaking Point Guard

Heurtel, who hardly needs introduction, is pass-first playmaker by choice not by limitation and switched into scoring mode in the second part of the season as Walter Hodge was replaced by the passing-minded Guiseppe Poeta. Heurtel’s assist to field goal attempt ratio dropped from 0.87 (pre-February) to 0.62 (since) and his scoring increased by nearly five points per game despite just a 1.4 increase in minutes per game. He scored the ball on a very strong 1.058 PPP since the beginning of February, up from 0.875 in lower usage.

Erick Green, Montepaschi Siena, 23.0 years, Scoring Point/Two-Guard

Erick Green led the NCAA in scoring for most of the 2012-13 season while playing for Virginia Tech, but failed to average double figures as a rookie for Montepaschi Siena in the October-January period, averaging 9.2 points per game in 21.2 minutes per game in Serie A games (Euroleague games are excluded). He’s averaging an excellent 15.1 points in 25.8 minutes a game since the beginning of February, all on 1.177 PPP, teaming up with Marquez Haynes to fill the scoring void left by Daniel Hackett’s departure in what has been a turbulent season in Siena. A major plus for him has been his ability to produce points without turning the ball over, averaging just a little over one turnover a game in February-May.

Lukas Festr, USK Praha, 19.8 years, Point Guard

Teenage playmaker Lukas Festr, a long-time presence in Czech youth national teams, exploded in the second half of the season, logging large minutes at the expense of another young Czech, Michal Sotnar. Festr averaged 13.7 points per game since the beginning of February (including a late five-game span where he averaged nearly 20/7), while scoring on a solid 0.947 points per possessions. He also averaged 5.2 assists and 3.6 rebounds per game. USK are an all-Czech team coached by former Bamberg, Braunschweig, Gießen head coach Ken Scalabroni. They finished 13-29 in the NBL’s regular season. The level of play behind still unbeaten Nymburk (who rank 22nd in the Euroleague/Eurocup club ranking) is suspect, though.

O’Darien Bassett, Bourg-en-Bresse, 28.0 years, Scoring/Playmaking Point Guard

This might well be a random bulge in Bassett’s season, but the 28-year-old has been killing the Pro B in the second half of the season, leading Bourg-en-Bresse into the Pro B playoff semifinals, where they are leading Evreux 1-0 (Game 2 was in progress at the time of writing). He’s been averaging 18 points and 1.151 PPP (which is excellent in shot creator context) since the beginning of February, while dishing out 5 assists per game and keeping turnovers (2.2) fairly limited. Bassett averaged 11.8 points per game on 0.915 PPP in 26 games before February.

Kyryl Natyazhko, Azovmash, 23.5 years, Power Forward

Plenty of foreign players fled Ukraine in early 2014, creating a void that was left to be filled by home-grown talent. Natyazhko had an eye-catching Eurobasket 2013 performance which he failed to back up in the first half of the Ukranian Superleague season. His playing time jumped from 11.2 (before February) to 26.2 minutes per game (since). He scored 13.2 points per game since the beginning of February, though against weakened competition. This is more about increased playing time than improved performance, even if Natyazhko did push his possession efficiency from 0.855 points per possession (before February) to 0.986 (since).

George Rowland and sJacas discuss the Dario Šarić and Eurocup finals.

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George Rowland and sJacas discuss the upcoming Eurocup quarter finals.

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(sJacas)

A friend of mine, a childhood Chicago Bulls fan, once told me he refuses to watch replay of the historical Game 6 of the 1998 NBA Finals. He doesn’t want his childhood memories ruined. Having watched said game myself years after it took place, I am certain he is doing the right thing. Subtract the magnitude, the end-of-an-era charm and you’re left with a stagnant, 48-minutes iso-feast, during which Michael Jordan took more than half of his team’s shots. He missed 20.

I always expect to come away disappointed from watching tape of an all-time classic. Most people will tell you the 2002 Final between Kinder Bologna and Panathinaikos was one of the best in modern Euroleague history. It had Bodiroga, Obradović, Ginobili, Rigaudeau, Smodiš, Messina, a large first half lead, a comeback, worthy star performances, a fired-up crowd and tension until the last minute. And yet — guess what — players missed shots. They committed dumb turnovers, left the backdoor open, failed to box out, missed fouls shots, just as they do today. 65 free throws too often brought the game to a standstill. All things considered, it was a great game.

Read the full article here

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(sJacas)

On the day the Beko-BBL celebrates its fan-voted Allstars in Bonn, here are a bunch of graphs to outline team trends at the halfway mark.

(Raw data from RealGM schedules and team stats; post uses graph code from mbostock)

Bayern lead the league in win percentage (Win%) after 17 games, but Alba Berlin rank first in Pythagorean/Expected Win Percentage (Exp%), which is a win estimate based on offensive and defensive rating (or points for/against, if tempo free stats are unavailable). “Luck” is here merely the margin between expected and actual win percentage.

Three teams — Alba, Ulm and Würzburg — have performed on a level far better than their win/loss record indicates, while another three — Artland, Frankfurt, MBC — are unlikely to maintain their current win/loss record if 2nd half (season) performance is similar to first half performance.

Team Graphs

The team graphs below show offensive and defensive rating adjusted for strength of schedule. If you drop 110 points per 100 possessions on an opponent that conceded 100 points per 100 possession in all remaining games, that means you’re plus 10 in offensive rating for the game. The graphs are not game-by-game, though, but show three games running averages, to not follow every one-game variance (although three games is a fairly short range already). The black line is offensive rating, the invisible line on the other end of the painted area is defensive rating. If the area is red, that means defensive rating has been worse during the three game stretch than offensive rating. Remember: defensive rating is the lower the better. Also consider the scale of the graph, on the Y-axis, which is not consistent.

Playoff Ranks

Bayern München

Akin to their Euroleague performance, Bayern are playing elite-level offense in the BBL, producing extensive stretches of offensive performances 15 to 20 points per 100 possessions above opponents’ defensive season averages. Defense, though ranking third, is closer to league average than it is to the league-leading defense of Alba Berlin.

Early-season dominance has gone missing in recent weeks, with a busy Euroleague schedule possibly taking its toll — even if they are far from alone amongst their BBL rivals in playing lots of games this year.

Brose Baskets

Failure to defend on an even remotely acceptable level — they ranked dead bottom in defensive rating, at 116.6 points per 100 possessions — had been instrumental in Bamberg’s Euroleague exodus, but Bamberg have really been turning it up a gear in the BBL in past weeks, boosted by the arrival of D’Or Fischer.

Offense has dropped likewise, for some reason, and there’s been a visible and measurable change of character with Fischer patrolling the paint and Sanders and Harris disrupting passes with far greater activity than the irregular Markota and the still-rusty Velickovic.

Alba Berlin

Alba Berlin have played a remarkable campaign to date, with even a 13 and 4 record still betraying the quality this team has brought to the floor. Only mean-spirited minds as they undoubtedly exist will hope for an unexpected late-season collapse as it happened last season.

Alba have been the only team that has been defending on an elite level all throughout, holding opponents between five and 15 points per 100 possessions below their season averages through every three-game stretch they’ve had so far. Offense has collapsed occasionally, but super defense remains a fantastic foundation for future success.

EWE Baskets Oldenburg

Oldenburg were second in defensive rating last season and made Bamberg work for their title far harder than a 3-0 finals sweep indicates. They’ve simply not maintained their top-level defense from 2012/13, ranking 4th in defensive rating, but very close to league average.

They escaped an extensive stretch of terrible mid-December performances recently. This is the league’s best team not currently active in Euro competition.

Telekom Baskets Bonn

Bonn were the team of the hour early on. While defense has been dancing around league average, offense has come to a standstill against a fairly easy schedule of opponents. All of this is strongly correlated to topscorer Benas Veikalas’ performance, a player who drops 17.6 points a game on 72.4 percent true shooting on (Eurocup & BBL) opponents when Bonn is winning but regresses to 11.8 points a game on 47.0 percent true shooting in losses.

Artland Dragons

The Artland Dragons are 11 and 6 despite having been outscored. Barring improvement, this win/loss record will be difficult to sustain. The good news is that this is true for a bunch of borderline playoff teams behind them as well.

Ratiopharm Ulm

Ulm have been playing better than their pure win/loss record suggests. Ulm are capable of blowing out opponents and appear to be less of a grind-it-out team.

Offensive performance, ranking a more-than-satisfying second in the league in Year One after John Bryant, has seen some strong fluctuations (consider the scale of the graph) — possibly due to Ulm’s frequent long range shooting.

Fraport Skyliners

Frankfurt, youngest team in the league, are shocking the league with their 9-8 record, but they’re smart not to relax, having recently signed experienced big man Dane Watts.

Their overall performance has been that of a team expected to win two-, rather than three in six.

Non-Playoff Ranks

After cruising past Barca in Sunday’s Clasico, Real Madrid are 23 and zero to open the season¹. Average margin of victory? 21.3 points.

Luck, to go along with top-notch quality, is usually a factor in long winning streaks, but Real Madrid’s so-far flawless record is the result of flat-out domination: Dropping offensive ratings of 121.9 (Euroleague) and 117.1² (ACB) points per 100 possessions on opponents while holding them to ratings of 88.9 and 90.5, respectively, on defense, is uncalled for in modern Euroleague/ACB history. Only five games – road wins in Murcia, Gran Canaria, Valencia, Badalona and Milan – finished in single digits.

Easy stops

It is easy to assume Real Madrid’s dominance starts with stops on defense, but there is arguably a hidden context to their rock-solid defensive performance (first in defensive rating in both Euroleague and ACB): Having watched all ten Euroleague matches, five to six ACB encounters and a number of corresponding statements from coaches and players, I would speculate that a bunch of opponents have been sacrificing offensive performance in pursuit of the mysterious “controlling the pace”. I understand the raw theory behind this: slow the game down, take in-control shots when the backcourt is sufficiently covered, keep their shooters out of rhythm. The problem is that offensive output is likely dropping when you are playing out-of-character offense, like Bamberg did in Madrid in week 2. And: Real Madrid are not different from anyone else in that they are playing better offense off stops (steals, defensive rebounds) than dead ball situations. You want to score on them whatever way it is possible – granted, easier said than done – rather than sacrificing quick high-value shots in order to extend possessions.

On defense

The characteristics of defense are rarely as obvious as the offense’s, and Real Madrid are not any different here. There is nothing outrageous about the strategies they apply, but they do have above average athleticism and average player height does not do their length justice. They do have incredibly quick hands; Sergio Rodriguez (3rd), Draper (4th), Rudy (6th), Mirotic (5th) and Slaughter (1st) all feature prominently league-wide in steal percentage on their respective positions. Rudy is probably getting too little credit for his role as on-ball disruptor. Slaughter is very clever stealing post-feeds or poking the ball away from the post-up player. They are 1st in the league, too, in block percentage, with Mirotic and Darden both in the top three on their respective positions.

Slaughter is one of the quickest help-and-recover defenders in the league, and Mejri and even Bourousis are arguably on the mobile end of the spectrum relative to their size.

Potential issues in transition defense have rarely been exposed as opponents, as mentioned appeared intent on running long possessions. Should they ever face a very good transition offense this season – Olympiakos (remember the 2013 Euroleague Final?) and Fenerbahce come to mind – this defense will be truly tested.

On offense

Here on ITG we have been pondering (1, 2, 3) about shot locations, turnovers and all the factors that make a high-quality offense for a while now, and Real Madrid are the closest I’ve witnessed thus far in approaching the ideal offense that produces high-value shots while keeping turnovers to a minimum. They are currently tied for sixth in turnover percentage (ascending) – combined with their league-leading effective field goal percentage (58.9), solid offensive rebounding- and free throw rates, that makes for a good punch.

Among the early trends have been unsuccessful post-ups for Bourousis – the Greek is 1-for-8 on unassisted close range shots (scroll down for his shot chart) – but he’s been adding value by posing an outside stretch five threat. The stretch five is sometimes confusing players and spectators alike to the point where one is left guessing whether opponents are intentionally leaving him open on the pop, or whether they are just overwhelmed by the number of options Real Madrid have.

The threat level reaches scary heights when Real Madrid stop the ball and have Sergio Rodriguez handling the ball on the break. As Serrod is advancing the basketball, Jaycee Carroll is sprinting towards the corner on one wing while Rudy Fernandez is stopping at the extended free throw line on the other. Slaughter, Mejri and Mirotic are always first down the floor in transition. There is a multitude of options for Serrod, who loves to attack early to throw a lob or find shooters on the wing. Real Madrid are 10-for-20 on fastbreak three point shots.

Serrod’s late-clock shot-making

If Nikola Mirotic’s shot making – he’s 18 for 28 from three and 9 for 13 on two point jump shots – is beyond understanding, how about Sergio Rodriguez’s outrageous percentages on difficult shots?

NBA players — there is no league-wide Euroleague data – are shooting 29 percent in average on three point pull-up jump shots. Serrod is shooting 18 for 29. These are shots of high difficulty level.

Collectively grown

The average player peaks at 27 to 28 – 26 to 29³ if you’re looking at an extended period (here and here). Based on Euroleague data, skills such as passing and three point shooting peak later than average (hence, certain types of point guards may peak 30-31 rather than 27-28), while offensive rebounding, shot blocking and drawing shooting fouls peak earlier.

Eight of eleven regular rotation players on Pablo Laso’s roster were born between 1983 and 1987. Only the ultra-talented Nikola Mirotic (1991), late-blooming wing Tremmell Darden (1981) and captain Felipe Reyes (1980) are outside that range. This roster has collectively grown and improved.

Lineup consistency

Laso is the most consistent coach I’ve seen in using five man units, made possible by the roster’s super strong 11-deep rotation and fantastic, stress-free games that rarely demanded hectic substitutions. That’s why the clear patterns in, for example, Jaycee Carroll’s and Dontaye Draper’s minutes.

Last season’s frequent lineup of Llull, Rudy, Suarez, Mirotic and Begic, Laso’s most-used lineup, provided a minus one in 114 minutes, a terrible sign for a top-level Euroleague team. The second unit however, usually featuring Sergio Rodriguez, Jaycee Carroll, Felipe Reyes, Marcus Slaughter and one additional player, regularly ran opponents out of the building. When Laso tore apart his lineups in mid-season – coinciding with the Euroleague Top16 phase – performance dropped.

Suarez and Begic were replaced by Darden and Bourousis during the offseason. In 2013/14, the Real Madrid starting lineup of Llull, Rudy, Darden, Mirotic and Bourousis is plus 38 in 57 minutes. Their second most-used lineup (Draper, Llull, Rudy, Mirotic, Bourousis – the lineup that regularly starts the second half) is plus 39 in 32 minutes. The bench is as productive as ever. You go from occasional second quarter- and regular fourth quarter dominance to regular 40 minutes of dominance. 40 minutes of hell.

More shot charts

¹ That excludes the SuperCopa
² Using the traditional formula with a 0.44 free throw factor; data from RealGM
³ There is a survivor bias, though

Analytics

0:00 The Victor Sada effect

38:41 Shot Charts / Mid Range Game / Turnover Locations