(On a second attempt, I’ll be trying to make these random notes a more regular thing. There’ll be a lot to discuss throughout he domestic season run-in and off-season.)

Spotted and exposed: The weak link

It does appear as though game preparation suffers, as you would expect, under the increasingly busy game- and travelling schedule. Is a Top16 game subject to the same level of preparation as a quarter final series? Probably not, but that is just an assumption. If this assumption is true, though, you may get away with a couple of low-percentage options in your unit through most of the season, but you might get exposed once preparation level rises – which usually happens when it matters most.

Creative on-ball talent is expensive, which is why Europe’s best shot creators are playing for the financially potent or heading there within a year or two. Or, as in Vassilis Spanoulis’ case, they make a large percentage of their team’s salary total.

Defenses collapse on key ballhandlers and leave weak shooters wide open.

Too often they get away with it.

• That is how Panathinaikos famously neutralized Juan Carlos Navarro in the 2010/11 quarter finals, double- and triple teaming Navarro on every catch. Ricky Rubio did not make them pay, and neither did Victor Sada in 2013. Barça’s full-season offensive rating is only marginally worse with Sada on the floor rather than off the floor, but in that quarter finals series versus Panathinaikos he was so much of a liability that Xavi Pascual elected to play him only 18 and a half minutes combined through games three to five.
• In the same series, Pascual turned to a zone defense that left a wide gap wherever Roko Ukic (plus Xanthopoulos, in limited time), Kostas Tsartsaris or James Gist were positioned.
• Pascual also elects to have his point guard defender rotate over to Jaycee Carroll/Rudy Fernandez in every Clasico, giving Sergio Llull plenty of room to operate. I won’t act as though that strategy was particularly successful – Real Madrid had a very good offensive output in those matchups – but that is because Llull has turned into a pretty damn good player who is shooting 38.9 percent from three point range in Euroleague and ACB combined for the season.
• Dontaye Draper dropped deep off of Sada in the 2013 Copa del Rey quarter final – another game that was most likely sophistically prepared for by both teams.
• Vassilis Spanoulis rotated deep off of Aaron Jackson in this year’s Euroleague semi final and Olympiakos hedged hard on Teodosic’s 1-5 pick and roll plays – both left unpunished. CSKA finished their Euroleague season tied for second in both three point shooting (38.9 percent) and offensive rating (111.2), but Jackson was their weak off-ball link, at 30.0 percent three point shooting in Euroleague & VTB League combined.
• Et cetera

Montepaschi Siena at times surrounded Bobby Brown with four players that are not just good shooters, but elite shooters. They posted a staggering 123.1 offensive rating with Tomas Ress playing the stretch five (335 minutes).

Teams that are playing elite offense based on quality halfcourt execution should not hand well-prepared opponents cheap escape routes. Top-level on-ball talent is rare, but quality role players are still out there to be recruited.

CSKA’s tall lineup: Found late, then forgotten

CSKA’s tall Teo-Weems-Khryapa-Erceg-Kaun lineup first appeared in week 12 of Top16 due to lengthy injuries to Viktor Khryapa and Zoran Erceg at different stages of the season. They were fantastic in their first four games, then had a net minus in the next two (Games 2 & 3 of the Baskonia series) before Ettore Messina reorganized the starting five, sending Aaron Jackson in instead of Erceg, a game CSKA won in controversial fashion. Messina chose to start Jackson in the semi final, too, to defend Spanoulis. A “defensive” strategy that did not pay off; The tall five was 5-2 in three minutes.

Hines: Worth how much exactly?

Kyle Hines is going to get a raise.

There were some interesting discussions going on around the Final Four. One of them centered around, inevitably, Kyle Hines’ future. Christophe (European Prospects) and myself said he could easily play in the NBA. Others were tentative. Van den Spiegel thinks Hines is worth 700.000 to 800.000 Euros. Hines’ current two-year-deal is worth 200.000€ net (330.000€ before taxes), according to a late 2011 Gazzetta.gr article. That’s right.

I believe he’s one of the competition’s top centers, one that can handle and pass the basketball and fits well in a transition- and pick-and-roll offense. That, and an incredible motor. Why should this multidimensional player, this formidable character not be worth 1.3 to 1.5 million Euros net in the context of center rivals? Here it is, the context, in reported numbers: James Augustine, a 4/5, 750.000€ net; Nenad Krstic (last season), 3.000.000€ net; Marcus Slaughter, 800.000€ net; Felipe Reyes, again a 4/5, 1.400.000€ net.

When Olympiacos started to get away after coming back from 16 points deficit, Oktay Mahmuti tried a one and box defense, succeeding to get back into the game. Considered as a conservative Yugoslavia style coach for a long time, the way he changed is joy to watch. On the other hand, Olympiacos found a way to answer eventually, their percentage in the last minutes were the opposite of first half. Maybe, Efes should have given up it earlier.

Spanoulis’ two layups over Semih Erden, which could be blocked definitely, are one of the keys. Efes started the second half calm and the reds were struggling. But, when you let such a slasher to get hot, he also started to kick out for very good looks. That’s how Olympiacos got the momentum. On the other hand, starting with Printezis, Hines – presence of effort, despite not feeling well obviously and performing low in his standards- and Papanikolaou, they stepped up and handled the pressure well. Psychologically, it was a worst case scenario but the champs took care of business, somehow.

Lack of Jordan Farmar put all the load on the shoulders of Jamon Lucas. Still, not sure it would be different, if he could play in the fourth. He was not enough but his relentless effort until final buzzer was amazing again. Definitely, one of the top 25 players in the league.

CT, 26/04/2013

Olympiacos just played with 4 of 19 beyond the arc in the first half, 2 of them came from Kostas Papanikolaou in the last 1:30. As simple as that. At least half of those misses are great, wide open looks. Theoretically, numbers must be different in the final 20 minutes of the playoffs.

Anadolu Efes keeps pushing the reds away from their primary plan. Instead of letting Spanoulis getting to the rim and letting their defense to be torn apart by the superstar play-maker, Efes chooses to be beaten by the other players, at least not in the paint. Coach Mahmuti is using zone defense in a David Blatt way, changing with man to man sometimes, surprising Olympiacos and making it more difficult to adjust. This has become a bigger issue since Olympiacos has not found a rhythm in offense so far especially. Spanoulis had started aggressive but even he slowed down later on.

We are going to see more Kyle Hines anymore. It’s a cliche but how Efes is going to react the aggressiveness of the home side which is on a 12-3 run after 15 to nothing run by Efes in the second quarter, during the first minutes of the second half is key. Efes has not looked mentally convincing in those situations mostly so far.

CT, 26/04/2013

sJacas, 25/04/2013

Barcelona are in the final four, should be treated with the utmost respect

This game was a 40-minute version of Barcelona’s season.

Breathtaking runs of flawless execution meeting some special talent. Black holes where shots were not falling and trustworthy stars (looking at you, Erazem) could not deliver. Young faces introducing themselves (how about Todorovic replacing Lorbek midway through the fourth?). Old faces either showing their age (Saras, only tonight) or reaffiming their standing in European hoops (La Bomba, only since the beginning of time). Xavi Pascual continuing to grow as a coach, even though he has already won everything. Unexpected contributions from somewhat overlooked players – much like Pete Mickeal reemerged as the best small forward in Europe, Marcelinho reminded everyone that helping off him on defense is a very risky proposition, by hitting the biggest shot of the night. The blaugrana marching on, through injuries, inexperience, cold streaks and doubt.

Of course tonight the bounces went their way. Not only did they build a large lead by shooting lights out in the first half, but they also watched Panathinaikos miss a whole bunch of clean looks from beyond the arc (1/16 overall) that could have turned this game around, as the hosts went ice cold. Argyris Pedoulakis resorted to a switch defense on all screens (on and off the ball) that hurt ball and people movement in Barcelona’s half court sets, but his team could not turn stops into buckets. Once again, Panathinaikos did not run. Even worse, they failed to establish their inside game. Sofo was a non-factor and post up opportunities for other players were non-existent.

With the Greens getting crashed on the boards, each offensive possession mattered even more, but efficiency was out of reach. Diamantidis was crowded. Ukic came up short both as a secondary shot creator and a shot maker. Maciulis had his moments and Lasme finished strong inside but their contributions were not enough. Navarro scored five of his team’s thirteen points in the fourth, Panathinaikos were held to 20 points in the second half, Barcelona prevailed.

Will they be able to do this two more times? Right now there is a lot of uncertainty. With Mickeal done for the season, the small forward position is not exactly a source of consistent production. Lorbek’s struggles are approaching paranormal activity levels. Huertas has been positive but inefficient.

But they do have Navarro and Saras and Pascual. They’ve also built a nice tandem upfront, with Jawai complementing Tomic perfectly. And they are the team that has progressed the most during this season. Their character has often come into question and they have always come up with the correct answer. Barcelona are not the frontrunners but they must be respected as the most resilient team in Europe.

Rod Higgins, 25/04/2013

3rd quarter recap

Over the last two seasons, James Gist has often been exposed as a weak defender. It turns out that he was simply playing out of position on defense.

After picking up Saras full court for a couple of minutes in game four, the American forward started the second half of this game on Juan Carlos Navarro and held him scoreless for five minutes: he blocked one of his threes, deflected one of his passes and forced him into two more missed field goals. He was not as successful when he had to rotate in Panathinaikos’ switch defense, allowing a Tomic bucket and fouling the Croatian on two post-ups, but he also forced two misses by the Barcelona center and did enough to slow down the juggernaut that was the blaugrana offense in the first half.

The hosts had an awful shooting quarter, dropping to 28% from beyond the arc and not doing much better from other spots on the floor. Lorbek and Tomic in particular struggled pretty badly, with the former also having an off night on defense. But the Greens missed a few clean looks from the outside (Gist was wide open twice and missed), gave up another six offensive boards, could not run and did not get the isolation looks they wanted – Lasme ended up being involved in most of them. This is how they scored just 10 points, to Barcelona’s seven. With ten minutes to go, we have an eight point game.

Rod Higgins, 25/04/2013

sJacas, 25/04/2013

2nd quarter recap

You know it’s going to be a long night when Joe Ingles is hitting mid-range jumpers off the dribble. Barcelona’s execution is spot-on as usual, but their shooting accuracy is off the charts. Pascual did not overreact to the early-series shooting slumps and his players reward him by hitting everything. Even Todorovic had his moment, faking out Lasme for an easy layup.

Down big, Panathinaikos had a very clear to-do list: move the blaugrand defense out of their initial positions early in the shot clock in order to open up some perimeter shots. Improve pick and roll defense. Make some free throws. After Sofo failed to deliver on the first point of the list – Jawai did an excellent job on him with very little help from his teammates – the Greens brought back Diamantidis. Ball movement improved, free throws were made, but threes were bricked and defensive rebounds were not secured.

Panathinaikos is better prepared for the zone but they can’t match the hosts shot for shot and have allowed Barcelona to get back through offensive rebounds nine of their seventeen missed shots. This is a very bad sign, since it’s likely that the blaugrana field goal percentage will come back down to earth. Even worse, Diamantidis has picked up three fouls.

The Greens are not out of the game just yet (Navarro has already logged 17 minutes , Tomic is in foul trouble), but they can’t keep daring Barcelona to make shots and they need to find a shot creator that will complement their improved passing game. No easy tasks, but with London 20 minutes away, there are no shortcuts.

Rod Higgins, 25/04/2013

1st quarter recap

With The Zone working so well, Xavi Pascual felt less inclined to follow Argyris Pedoulakis in his center rotation. Nate Jawai started opposite Stephane Lasme, Ante Tomic entered the game at the same time as Big Sofo. This decision backfired, as the Croatian picked up two quick fouls going up against Schortsianitis. This was about the only bad news for Barcelona.

Huertas started the game aggressively, scoring the first two buckets for Barcelona, Navarro picked up from where he had left off in game four and even Joe Ingles joined in the fun. Those three have hit 4 threes in the opening period as Barcelona knock down the sort of perimeter looks that have been there for them since the opening game of the series. This is how they have scored 28 points on 18(-ish) possessions.

On offense things are not that bad for Panathinaikos. Instead of taking what the zone is giving them at the top of the key, they work the baseline, look for cutters and attack the offensive glass. But they can’t knock down their free throws and went through a disastrous spell with Ukic, Diamantidis (2 early fouls as well) and Sofo on the bench. Zero creativity – even against man-to-man defense – led in large part to 14 points in 18(-ish) possessions. Can Marcus Banks provide an answer?

Rod Higgins, 25/04/2013

Game 5 preview: make shots or make adjustments

As it happens with most of my writing, the headline of this post is a bit simplistic. But that doesn’t mean it isn’t true. Panathinaikos made 66% of their threes in the first half of game 3. Xavi Pascual went with The Zone, in order to deny the sort of actions (Diamantidis or Ukic running the pick and roll; practically any Panathinaikos player with a size advantage over his man posting up) that generated most of these shots. The series hasn’t been the same since. Even though the Greens survived a Barcelona comeback in the third game, they could not match their opponents on either end of the floor a couple of nights later, setting up tonight’s elimination affair.

In the meantime, Pascual also found a few adequate alternatives to perimeter shooting: Ante Tomic worked the pick and roll against Sofo Schortsianitis and the low block against Stephane Lasme. Marcelinho Huertas found his niche on the weak side, especially during the first half. Panathinaikos’ defensive success during this series is mainly the result of sending multiple defenders toward the side of the ball. This opens up both shooting opportunities and driving lanes away from it. The Brazilian guard was not exactly efficient when he tried to capitalize on the former but did a lot of damage finding openings inside. The late barrage of three pointers, led by Juan Carlos Navarro built on those pillars and took the drama out of the closing minutes of game four.

Now it’s up to Panathinaikos to make the final act a bit more suspenseful. Their problem against The Zone is not simply one of missed shots – they have also failed to generate enough quality looks, allowing Barcelona to keep offensive-minded lineups on the floor for long stretches. It’s no coincidence that Victor Sada spent the first thirty minutes of game 4 on the bench. As I mentioned elsewhere, out of all options at their disposal (running their offense through Sofo; picking up the pace; attacking from the top of the key), the baseline seems like their safest bet. It is there where they can force the blaugrana power forwards to guard their shot creators one-on-one, or open up passing lanes toward the middle of the floor.

That said, the individual intensity displayed by every single Barcelona player in the context of that zone should not be underestimated. And with the Spanish champs coming off their best offensive game of the series, Panathinaikos should start by matching that intensity on the other end of the floor. You see, there is a solution to the aforementioned dilemma for both teams. They just have to work really hard to come up with it.

Rod Higgins, 25/04/2013

Efes vs Olympiakos G4 Full Time Notes

Efes, too forced Game 5 after edging Olympiakos 74-73 on an incredible tip-in by Jamon Lucas one second from time.

• Olympiakos played the entire crunch time with Spanoulis on the bench(!) as a lineup of Law, Sloukas, K-Pap, Printezis and Hines excelled with strong defense and super transition play, before a bunch of screw-ups and subsequent Efes transition baskets bround Efes back within one.
• Jamon Lucas had an amazing tip-in with one second left to give Efes a one-point-lead. Olympiakos failed to get a decent shot on the inbounds, again, without Spanoulis. It was a fitting end to a game where Efes had exactly as many offensive rebounds (21) as Olympiakos had defensive rebounds.
• Four Factors:
• The Greeks went 1 for 9 from three point range in the second half after going 9 for 15 in the first half.

sJacas, 19/04/2013

Efes vs Olympiakos G4 Half Time Notes

• Bartzokas has apparently seen enough: Started Shermadini instead of Powell; Sherma conceded a post move by Erden and committed 2 fouls. Powell entered at 8-4 in Oly’s favour; Had his best game of the series, ironically.
• Law and Papanikolaou are having monster games. Spanoulis has been typically instrumental. Law is a true force in transition. Just single-handedly created an and-one for K-Pap. K-Pap delivered a highlight-reel pass as he drove inside and flashed a pass to the corner along the baseline around the helping big man. He’s 4/5 from 3, has 14 points.
• Olympiakos are playing drive and kickout to perfection. Law and Spanoulis know exactly what they’re doing. Oly often have two or three drives within one possession, passing up a semi-open look for an even better one. They’re making those shots at a super high percentage – 9 for 15 from the outside so far. Hence the 44 first half points.
• Efes are always threatening in transition. They’ve had a good half on offense but were consistently blown by on defense by the Olympiakos 1-4.
• Mahmuti has slightly altered the set-up in this game: In the Guard-Gönlüm 1-4 high screen and roll, Barac is not positioned along the baseline but in typical “3rd man” position (as a stretch five) up high. Has made one three point shot. Olympiakos drop the center off of Barac to help against Gönlüm’s roll.
• Efes have dominated the offensive glass, with 8 offensive rebounds on 19 chances.

sJacas, 19/04/2013

Barcelona win, tie series

In the long run the numbers don’t lie.

Xavi Pascual had a lot of reasons to try some adjustments after two straight losses in the series. Barcelona’s offense looked out of balance, as their ineffectiveness from beyond the arc hurt their pick and roll game and forced their post up players to work in limited space. But the Catalan coach stuck with the numbers that said his team’s shot selection was solid. His insistence paid off in when it mattered the most.

After a Lasme layup brought Panathinaikos within 8 points in the four-minute mark, the numbers had their revenge through a unique talent. Navarro brought the ball upcourt, did not look to pass, did not try to run one of Pascual’s sophisticated systems, did not have any doubts about what he wanted to do. He pulled up and hit the dagger three. It was one of his three long range bombs (or bombas) for the quarter. Barcelona’s percentage in three-point attempts was still below their season average at the start of the series, but after five makes in the final quarter of an elimination game Pascual won’t mind. If anything he must feel some sort of vindication or even poetic justice, considering that at least two of them were not exactly a product of execution.

On the other end of the floor, The Zone, maximized Tomic’s length (zero block but numerous altered close range shots), saved his legs despite Jawai’s early foul trouble and took advantage of the Greens’ awful shooting night. Diamantidis was held scoreless as the pick and roll structure within which he thrives collapsed and his pull up jumper was off. After a couple of fine games, James Gist could not finish among the trees. And after playing ten very productive minutes in the first half, Sofo lasted only two in the second.

Looking ahead, I’m not sure that Barcelona are the best team in Europe. Hell, I don’t even know if they are a final four team, especially if Pedoulakis can come up with a counter to The Zone (many shots were missed, but not enough good looks were generated). But I do know that they are the most battle – tested unit. They went through early season adversity, a series of injuries and the uncertainty that comes with every new beginning. But they won the biggest game of their season by demonstrating great balance on offense, getting key contributions from recently maligned players – six assists and six boards for Marcerlinho, a couple of big shots by Lorbek – and defending like a proper Pascual-coached team.

In game 5, Panathinaikos will have to display similar resolve. That’s a pretty high task.

Rod Higgins, 18/04/2013

End of third quarter: Barcelona up 13

In the midst of all those bricks from beyond the arc, I failed to mention that the suddenly controversial Victor Sada did not play in the first half. But after Panathinaikos run off five straight points against the perimeter defense of Saras, Huertas and Abrines, he came in for the young Spaniard late in the third.

The Greens were held scoreless for more than two minutes, Navarro back for Huertas, picking up where the Brazilian had left off with a trademark bombita and Tomic continued to dominate Lasme on both ends. Probably the best center in Europe right now, but let’s see how much he has left in the tank. Jawai’s foul trouble have kept him on the floor for 22 minutes already.

Rod Higgins, 18/04/2013

Midway through the third: Barcelona up 11

Pedoulakis started Lasme. Pascual went with Jawai. On the very first Panathinaikos possession of the quarter, Diamantidis and Lasme hooked up on the pick and roll. Shortly thereafter, Pascual subbed in Tomic. Pedoulakis responded with Sofo, who scored only two points on his first three touches (the other two resulted in turnovers) and conceded six to the Croatian center. PAO timeout, Pedoulakis brings Lasme back in. Maybe individual match ups are overrated. Especially when the home team can’t make a three (1/11 in the first 25 minutes) and Eramez Lorbek is heating up. PAO are running out of ideas against the zone.

Rod Higgins, 18/04/2013

End of first half: Barcelona up four

Mike Bramos finally put an end to Panathinaikos’ cold streak from beyond the arc, bringing Panathinaikos within four at the three minute mark, as Barcelona missed on bunch of clean looks of their own, could not turn their stops into transition buckets (same goes for PAO, excluding a Bramos dunk) and appeared overwhelmed by the energetic defense of Panathinaikos big men (especially Gist) on the pick and roll.

Panathinaikos continued to struggle against The Zone whenever Sofo could not touch the ball, but luckily for them he did that often enough (11 points, 5/6 free throws) to keep the Greens within striking distance. That said, Barcelona did a poor job attacking him on the pick and roll for most of the first half. Pascual started the game by following Pedoulakis’ rotation at the center position (Tomic entered the game at the same time as Lasme), but did not bring back the Aussie, as Sofo logged 10 minutes in the first half – probably a record for him in the series. Let’s see if that decision pays off in the final twenty minutes.

Both teams are shooting extremely poorly from beyond the arc, with Barcelona generating better looks. Their offense looks more balanced, with Saras and Huertas balancing out Navarro’s usage, but if they keep missing perimeter shots, those other options might become harder to come by. The same goes for their opponents.

Rod Higgins, 18/04/2013

First impressions

Neither team can make a three right now and this is good news for the guests. Panathinaikos and Barcelona have misfired on all but one of their combined attempts from beyond the arc (Joe Ingles was the one lifting the curse), but the blaugrana have found a bunch of quality looks in the paint.

Jawai, Tomic and Ingles have scored 11 points at the rim (including free throws off fouls draw in these areas), with Huertas snapping out of his funk and doing great works on the wing. The Brazilian guard scored a couple of buckets from the weakside and added an assist from the side pick and roll, making the Panathinaikos defense pay for flooding the strong side.

Meanwhile the Greens had only Big Sofo too look for constant production. Pascual has been very cautious with help defense after getting torched from beyond the arc in the first half of game 3. Sofo has taken advantage of the extra room, but as long as his teammates remain cold from the outside, Barcelona can live with it, given his defensive limitations.

Lasme improved Panathinaikos’ defense, but Barcelona are crashing their opponents on the offensive glass. And after Saras entered the game the defense didn’t hold up. A three and a lay up by the Lithuanian, around Maciulis lay up on the low block (good sign for Pedoulakis), bring Barcelona are up 11, with 6 minutes to go in the second quarter.

Rod Higgins, 18/04/2013

Panathinaikos – Barcelona Game 4 preview

The obvious patterns that have emerged in the first three games of the series – three-point shooting, or a lack thereof; Panathinaikos looking for mismatches inside; Barcelona resorting to semi-guerrilla tactics, with a 2-3 zone and a seldom used three-guard lineup; slow pace; Panathinaikos making up for turnovers on the offensive glass (with the exception of game 1 – would normally make this post pretty short: Barcelona need to make shots, Panathinaikos need to defend like they have and hope that post ups along with weak side threes will give them enough points to avert extended dry spells. But then, twitter saved the day.

Rob Scott started a very interesting debate, when he wondered about the impact that Argyris Pedoulakis and Xavi Pascual had on this series. A few distinguished gentlemen jumped in and many good points were raised: Rafael Uehara noted that those games have been so close and determined to such an extent by random events (like a Navarro free throw), that it is impossible to turn their outcomes into an indictment about Pascual’s abilities. Don and Pistol Pete were a bit harsher on the Catalan coach, questioning his in-game adjustments and his faith on Victor Sada during crunch time. Speaking of in-game (terrible transition, I know), the Dear Leader of this very blog noted that Barcelona’s expected three-point percentage, based on their shot distribution and their accuracy before the start of the series, is a very respectable 35.1%. Therefore, it’s not really Pascual’s fault that his players can’t do what they have been doing all season long, thus allowing Diamantidis to roam on defense and Pedoulakis to seal off the paint.

Here’s my two cents: playoff series often take a life of their own. Teams (and players) get familiar with each other. Strategic adjustments can always provide coaches with an advantage over their opponent at the other bench, but when you work for months on a specific set of principles, which includes a bunch of counteractions in case plan A doesn’t work, ‘adjustments’ can hurt execution. Pascual has demonstrated enough flexibility during that series when it comes to defensive schemes or lineup decisions. He has not been always right, but he has often helped his team overcome stretches of bad shooting or tough individual match ups, whether he goes with a three-guard lineup or breaks out the zone.

Indeed , if there is a problem with Pascual’s coaching in this series, it has to do with his overall philosophy. The man who can draw a thousand plays and have his team execute every single one of them with the utmost precision is often dragged down into a slugfest of a game. Barcelona can’t turn their great defense into transition points. They also tend to rely too much on Navarro (admittedly the finest offensive player of his generation) and give their opponents the opportunity to take calculated risks.

Of course we should not forget that the blaugrana are playing without their best player, if not the best small forward in Europe. Pete Mickeal was a key in Barcelona’s defensive rotations and his movement without the ball would likely provide his team with more quality shots inside. And we should also keep in mind that Panathinaikos have been doing an excellent job on defense – Lasme staying in front of smaller players in pick and rolls, Bramos emerging as an elite stopper, Pedoulakis taking the right risks and making the most of his roster by expertly rotating his players.

In other words, I’m not sure that game four will be a time for adjustments. This is about execution, proper lineup decisions and of course character.

Rod Higgins, 18/04/2013

Anadolu Efes – Olympiacos Game 3 notes

Quick thoughts on game 3 between Efes and Olympiacos, aka game 2 turned upside down:

• Bartzokas started Dimitris Katsivelis instead of Law. He also gave Martynas Gecevicius a few minutes on the floor and kept Spanoulis to the bench for more than eight minutes.
• This reshuffling came at a cost. Outside of Acie Law (9 points on 4 of 5 shooting from the field), Olympiacos guards combined to make just one of six field goals. Kostas Sloukas is in a pretty bad funk right now.
• Led by Semih Erden, Efes dominated the offensive glass early on, getting back six of their first twelve missed shots (Erden had five of those). They only got two more in the first half after Josh Powell sat on the bench, but rebounded their first two misses in the third quarter, when Powell and Printezis reunited in the frontline. This duo had also struggled with rebounding during the first quarter of game 2.
• Somewhat expectedly, Efes broke out of their shooting slump, hitting 53% of their threes. Sasha Vujacic, Josh Shipp and Dusko Savanovic capitalized on the same type of looks that they could not knock down in the first two games of the series. Jordan Farmar and Savanovic (10 points apiece in the 1st half, finished with 17 and 15 respectively), also made their mid-range shots at a prolific rate. Stanko Barac was efficient from these areas as well.
• Efes seemed determined to crowd Spanoulis on the pnr. This aggressiveness, combined with different zone looks and switches, kept the Olympiacos captain away from the paint and rendered him an inefficient passer from outside in.
• And when Spanoulis does not have room to operate, the Reds need to either make their threes or generate transition opportunities in order to keep their offense reasonably productive. Neither happened tonight.
• Jamon Gordon nearly had a triple double. And it felt like another game for him.
• After Efes built a sizeable lead, Bartzokas closed the game without Spanoulis. Law was sensational, Sloukas defended well, K-Pap and Perperoglou formed a small but active forward combo and Hines was his normal self. But Gordon and Farmar hit key buckets, while the return of Erden in the place of Stanko Barac solidified the Efes defense.
• Shooting numbers have been extreme for Efes so far, but tonight their scoring was balanced and their defense very, very sharp. I can’t see any reason for not playing a similar type of game two days from now. Olympiacos on the other hand needs to create space for Spanoulis, avoid those three- to five – minute stretches where they can’t rebound the ball and deal with both Savanovic and Erden on the low block. Efes are a different animal at home. It remains to be seen how the champs will respond.

Rod Higgins, 17/04/2013

Madrid rediscover their defensive intensity, get back to the final four

Like most Real Madrid games, their decisive win in game 3 featured quite a few storylines related to their offense: there was a three-point onslaught bridging the third and fourth quarter that blew the game wide open; an excellent start to the game by Sergio Llull before that; and a few stretches where half-court struggles were mitigated by either a bunch of offensive rebounds or a few much needed transition points. Looking ahead to London, though, it was their defense that gave them something to build on, after a few red flags had been raised during the top-16.

Maccabi’s offense relies heavily on transition opportunities and their slashers taking advantage of spacing. Madrid did an excellent job getting back and staying in front of people. It was defensive individualism at its finest, coupled with timely rotations from Mirza Begic, underrated contibutions by Nikola Mirotic and Jaycee Carroll and a whole lot of deflected passes. Maccabi simply had no answer.

Madrid are in the final four. If they keep defending like that against teams that move the ball better than Maccabi, they could go all the way.

Rod Higgins, 16/04/2013

Panathinaikos vs FC Barcelona Game 3

• Barcelona started with Jawai, Wallace and Huertas instead of Tomic, Lorbek and Sada. That means Jasikevicius is mostly playing together with Sada, at least for the first half.
• I detailed Victor Sada’s crucial role for the Barca offense after Game 1, and except for a fantatic 4th quarter and overtime in that series opener, Sada’s presence has really allowed Diamantidis to sit back and organize the defense. Sada is 0/5 today and hasn’t really been as active in cutting to the basket on offense as he had been in that second half of Game 1.
• Lorbek was far more involved than in the previous game, when he set just one screen and had five post up attempts (with little success). He’s just 3 for 8, though, without getting to the foul line. Barca have made it to the free throw line just 4 times. They’re 3 for 13 from long range, and 21 for 64 in the series altogether. Inability to make wide open jumpshots has been killing
• Bramos is having a fantastic game, leading Pao with 11 points, and the team is shooting a green-hot 66 percent from outside the three point arc.
• Lasme has been stealing rebounds from the longer Tomic all series (incl. on free throws) – and putting them back at a high rate.

sJacas, 16/04/2013

Early in the fourth, Madrid are ridiculous (in the best way possible)

Two threes by Rudy (the second one desde su casa), another one by Mirotic (from the corner, as he should), Madrid up 13. Maccabi look like they’re on the ropes here.

Rod Higgins, 16/04/2013

Madrid storm back, take eight-point lead in the end of third quarter.

Carroll in for Suarez, Ohayon goes silent. At the same time, Maccabi go cold from outside. Madrid have not completely figured out Blatt’s switch defense, but Rudy finally hits a three (1/6 so far), then gets a steal and hits Carroll for a transition lay up. Laso’s adjustments meet individual talent.

At the same time, the reintroduction of Medley did not help much with the home team’s shooting struggles. Madrid also picked up their defensive intensity, taking Maccabi’s slashers out of their comfort zone and creating five transition points for Carroll. They just keep coming at you.

Rod Higgins, 16/04/2013

Midway through the 3rd quarter: Maccabi up four.

Three guard lineup for Maccabi. Ohayon vs Carlos Suarez. Ohayon: 5 points, two fouls drawn, 1 assist. Suarez: two missed free throws. Pretty obvious who won the big vs little matchup. Outside of Madrid grabbing a bunch of offensive boards, nothing works for them.

Rod Higgins, 16/04/2013

End of 1st half: Maccabi Tel Aviv 30 – Real Madrid 33

Reyes spent a couple of minutes during the second quarter laughing at the whole concept of stretch four: two offensive boards against Medley led to a trip to the free throw line and an easy layup. A hard roll after an off-the-ball screen gave him another high percentage shot inside.

But Maccabi made four triples in the quarter (two by Hickmann, who is on tonight), approaching their usual offensive productivity at home after a disastrous opening period. That said, Madrid have missed a bunch of clean looks from beyond the arc, gotten very little from Rudy and Mirotic but still lead by 3 at halftime. Regardless of the opposition, this is a deep team.

Rod Higgins, 16/04/2013

Marcus Slaughter has been linked with some of the best moments of Madrid in defense this season, but without Mirza Begic Maccabi are way more successful attacking the basket. James and DevinSmith have finished strong inside, Logan hit a three, Maccabi hang around. But they still haven’t figured out how to stop Llull (Madrid up 4, five minutes to half time).

Rod Higgins, 16/04/2013

End of first quarter

Madrid are up 6 after Carroll grabbed an offensive board and hit a layup at the buzzer. Maccabi should be looking to run. Madrid would probably enjoy a few quality looks closer to the basket.

Rod Higgins, 16/04/2013

Maccabi Tel Aviv – Real Madrid Game 3

On the first TV timeout, Madrid lead 14 to 5. Maccabi can’t get the merengues out of position on defense due to some undisciplined pick and roll execution (not a fan of Shawn James screens). They also can’t get easy buckets in transition as Madrid do a solid job getting back.

Blatt has already gone through three power forwards (Pnini is the latest entry), but spacing remains an issue. Meanwhile Sergio Llull has made up for Rudy missing on relatively open threes, by hitting two off the dribble.

After Pnini entered the floor Maccabi run 5 straight points, but it was not because of improved spacing. Delayed transition opportunities made the difference. Madrid timeout.

Rod Higgins, 16/04/2013

Quick Pre-Game Notes (Pao-Regal FCB)

Been thinking about Xavi Pascual’s heavy usage of Juan Carlos Navarro in the playoff series versus Pao. This issue has been around for a while and it has been coming up yet again in the most important stage of the season. Last Thursday, the chart looked like this:

Navarro initiated more than half (22) of Barca’s 39 pick and roll attempts* in Game 2, including 22 of 29 (76%) while he was on the floor.

That’s pretty one-sided for a team that has two elite pick and roll playmakers (Jasikevicius, Huertas) on its roster and that has failed to make wide-open weak side jump shots (an area where their best shooter could help) far too often both in this series and during the course of the season.

The usage versus efficiency breaking point is one of the most basic topics in advanced analytics: At one point, when increasing the usage of an efficient player, his efficiency drops to a level where he burdens rather than carries his team.

This is a particularly relevant topic in NBA basketball, where it is not rare for high-minute star players to have usage rates of close to or over 30 (individual plays to team possessions).

There was a highly theoretical yet thought-provoking piece in the 2010 MIT Conference (The Price of Anarchy in Basketball by Brian Skinner) where its author draws an analogy between a basketball offense and a traffic network.

The core statement is this: Using one path with high frequency kills efficiency (=causes a traffic jam), while distributing your offense (traffic) through several paths brings a better final result.Navarro on Thursday not only initiated 22 of 29 pick and rolls during his 26.5 minutes floor time, he also finished over 40% of Barca’s team possessions himself.

Pick and Rolls initiated by Navarro brought great success for Barca whenever Navarro had not been used for a while prior to that – which only happened when he sat out on the bench and after half-time. Performance crashed down at the end of his on-court sequences.

This could be merely a random thing; or it is an indicator for poor output when using Navarro excessively as a ballhandler. As so often, long-term data would make us so much smarter here.

*Pick and Roll attempts do not necessarily equal the typical “possession” definition here: They are all possessions where pick and roll was being played. (If the possession wasn’t finished as a result of pick and roll, the area on the graph stays empty)

sJacas, 16/04/2013

Quick Notes: Olympiakos-Efes G2 71-53

• Efes started with Gönlüm and Barac at the 4/5 and rode their 1/4 pick and roll en route to a 8-2 start, with Gönlüm screening and Barac waiting for the kickout in a baseline/midrange position. Here’s Efes’ full-game pick and roll ballhandling distribution:
• Gönlüm had a super opening period but picked up his 2nd foul early.
• There were interesting match-ups on the 1-2-3 as Spanoulis defended Lucas or Shipp through most of his floor-time, giving up a post-fadeaway for Lucas here and a putback for Shipp there, but never at a game-threatening level. Law defended Farmar and did so with reasonable success. Farmar finished with 8 point, 5 assists and 2 turnovers.
• Josh Powell again had a poor outing so Olympiakos again had to play catch-up when Kyle Hines entered the floor. And again, Hines delivered, relentlessly going after missed shots and diving for loose balls. Hines was part of a second-quarter unit that went on a lead-clinching run with plenty of transition baskets.
• Efes again had their four man sitting deep in pick and roll, which was punished by not Printezis but Antic, a 25.2 percent three point shooter prior to this game, who went 3 for 5.
• Efes found back into the game with a 2-3 zone that cut the lead to 9, but Olympiakos kept their patience and the ball alive and step-by-step got their lead back behind some heady play from Sloukas and Law, as well as the activity of Hines, Antic and Papanikolaou. (A lineup that went 10-0)
• Bartzokas was able to rest Spanoulis for long stretches, but V-Span was still able to make his mark on the game, finishing with 15 points and 8 assists. This was his game and not Jordan Farmar’s who elected to complain to the referee in one very telling sequence in the 4th quarter instead of hustling back, giving Spanoulis all the time in the world to stop and calmly sink the three-point-dagger.
• Here is Olympiakos’ pick and roll distribution:

sJacas, 12/04/2013

Quick Notes: CSKA-Baskonia G2 90-68

• Baskonia came out with Causeur back in the starting five – a confident move, if you will, as Tabak’s Wednesday maneuver (San Eme in, Causeur out) seemed to be intended to match CSKA’s long starting lineup
• Baskonia were having a fine opening period: Rebounding the ball on the defensive end and pushing the ball to find early shots. Moreover, they were really making use of their versatility here, with N.Bjelica stretching the floor and Lampe causing confusion with his ability to play both pick and roll and pick and pop.
• Messina’s go-to lineup was outscored for the 1st time this season, 19-25.
• Baskonia were again pressuring the ball early, which CSKA’s ballhandlers (esp. Teodosic, Micov) have used for plenty of early drives to the rim throughout this series. In the end, in Weems/Micov and Khryapa they still have enough good ballhandlers on the floor. And Baskonia do not exactly have a Draper-type of defender to force turnovers.
• Lampe’s 3rd foul, a bogus call late in the 1st quarter, dealt Baskonia a heavy blow.
• Baskonia took a lead in the 2nd quarter, but CSKA had plenty of open shots missed that would sooner or later fall – they finished the game on an outrageously good 67.8 eFG%.
• Erceg has been a major plus for this team with his humourless shot-making from range and generally good decision-making in close-out situations on the perimeter. Khryapa was again MVP-like, with 9-9-5. Khryapa’s improvisation is off the charts and impossible to prepare for.
• Messina is going with extremely tall lineups (with a weighted height of over 203 1/2 centimeters – tallest team in the league), but this does not imply that the team is slowing it down – they push the ball at pretty much every opportunity.

sJacas, 12/04/2013

Quick Notes: Barcelona-Panathinaikos G2 65-66

• Xanthopoulos started for the 1st time this season, possibly as a reaction to a particularly poor 1st half stretch in Game 1 when the three top shot creators Ukic, Diamantidis, Schortsanitis were all off the floor. Ukic sitting out early meant he was on the floor when Diamantidis subbed out at the end of the 1st quarter. Pedoulakis had one of either Diamantidis or Ukic on the floor at all times.
• Diamantidis hit this beauty of a step-back three with 8.4 seconds left. He’d been 4 for 14 from long range in crunch time situations prior to that shot, and 5 for 15 from the free throw line.
• Pedoulakis often positioned Tsartsaris for Sofo post-feeds instead of a top-level shooter to punish double-teaming.
• Pascual used the three-guard-lineup for just two offensive- and one defensive possession(s) (score 2-0) as Abrines performed well playing the three.
• Ingles has produced 7 points, 2 rebounds and zero assists in 60 minutes played this series; Lorbek has 7 points on 2/9 shooting, 6 rebounds and 2 assists in 40 minutes.
• Maciulis is just 1 for 6 when on the floor with Jasikevicius, but this possibly includes minutes when they were not guarding one another.

sJacas, 12/04/2013

sJacas, 11/04/2013

Fourth quarter recap (and final thoughts)

Navarro missed a free throw, Diamantidis made a three, Panathinaikos have a chance to close out this series at home. A few things that stood out:

• The two teams moved in opposite directions. Panathinaikos started making threes, Barcelona were more successful in the paint.However, there is no excuse for Tomic attempting only five shots. Lasme is a great pick and roll/weak side defender, but not nearly as successful against post-up bigs. Pascual should have created more opportunities for Tomic and Tomic should have worked harder to make himself available.
• Pedoulakis responded to Barcelona’s three guard lineup by having Maciulis guard Saras and switching with Lasme on pick and rolls. But the Greens could not take advantage of that match up on the other end. Give credit to Saras’ defense (seriously).
• Mike Bramos will never have a problem finding a nice Euroleague contract in his career. Rugged defenders who can shoot are always in demand.
• Nate Jawai and CJ Wallace are a pretty effective duo when it comes to defending the pick and roll by switching on the ball handler and hedging out respectively. That said, having Jawai switch on Diamantidis with the game on the line is a questionable decision. Diamantidis got as clean a look as he could have hoped for.
• On the other end, switching Lasme to Navarro was much more sensible.
• Lorbek needs to assert himself offensively. Not only because Barcelona struggled mightily on offense even though they were reasonably accurate from beyond the arc, but also because it is the only way to contain the damage that James Gist is doing.
• This series has a 90′s FIBA feeling. And I mean it in a good way.

 

Rod Higgins, 11/04/2013

Third quarter recap

Pascual went with a blue collar lineup to start the third quarter: Sada, Ingles, Wallace and Jawai alongside Navarro. It paid off immediately. Consecutive double teams on Sofo led to consecutive turnovers. An aggressive hedge out by Jawai led to a steal on a Diamantidis pick and roll. Barcelona’s lead ballooned to double digits, as PAO ball handlers were hounded and weak side players were waiting for the ball to come to them, with no cuts toward the paint.

But the Greens came back. They started making their threes (Gist, Ukic, Bramos), found a couple of transition buckets (Gist, Lasme) and rediscovered their defensive intensity, limiting open looks on the weakside and slowing down Barcelona’s half court execution. Meanwhile Ante Tomic could not take advantage of his size, the blaugrana offense became too Navarro-centric and the Alex Abrines factor, along with Barcelona’s continued success from beyond the arc were not enough to build a safe lead. Barcelona up two, ten minutes to go.

Rod Higgins, 11/04/2013

sJacas, 11/04/2013

And a couple of additional thoughts: Barcelona went with a 2-3 zone on 3 possessions. Gave up two offensive boards and two points. PAO are paying a price for the open looks they give upon the perimeter (5/9 threes for the home team). Lorbek still unsettingly quiet.

Rod Higgins, 11/04/2013

Panathinaikos has completely sealed off the paint. Tomic and Jawai have combined for 4 points. Barcelona have zero offensive rebounds. Juan Carlos Navarro is their leading scorer in the paint. But once again, Barcelona’s superior depth made the difference in the second quarter. In game 1 it was Saras. Tonight, Alex Abrines and Marcelinho Huertas scored 5 points apiece during that period, with the former adding some surpisingly solid defense and the latter handing out three assists.

Panathinaikos are struggling with a common problem for them this season: they do not get into their sets early enough on each possession. As a result the defense is not forced out of its initial position and when a mismatch or an opening presents itself, there is not enough time to make the most out of it. Ukic was isolated on the wing but didn’t have anywhere to go. The Diamantidis-Lasme pick and roll combo produced only two points. And to make matters worse, the Greens are taking a page out of their opponents’ game 1 book and shooting just 20% from beyond the arc. Sofo’s ability to draw (ineffective) double teams from Barcelona’s power forwards and offensive rebounds are the only bright spots offensively for the visitors.

Both teams work ferociously on defense. This means that energy will be key. No Barcelona player has played more than 11 minutes. Four PAO players have surpassed this threshold, with Diamantidis resting for only three minutes. Will the Greens be able to sustain their first half effort?

Rod Higgins, 11/04/2013

1st Quarter Recap

Pedoulakis expands his rotation by giving Vassilis Xanthopoulos the start over Roko Ukic. And while Juan Carlos Navarro scored 5 straight points on him early on, Xanthopoulos actually made a basket and may have saved Ukic’s and Diamantidis’ legs as the game wears on. Xavi Pascual also saw his complementary players making some much needed contributions – i.e. Joe Ingles and Victor Sada hit a couple of threes apiece. Those were about the only good news for Barcelona in the first quarter.

The lack of touches in the paint for both Ante Tomic and Nate Jawai was a bit perplexing. Navarro took a lot of shots, but there was not enough movement and sloppy entry passes didn’t help. Meanwhile, the post game of Big Sofo caused all sorts of trouble. Barcelona trapped him on 4 possessions with Erazem Lorbek, resulting in seven Panathinaikos points.

PAO up 8 early in the second.

Rod Higgins, 11/04/2013

Barcelona-Panathinaikos: a short preview

In the playoffs, adjustments after Game 1 are usually associated with the losing team. In the case of the Barcelona-Panathinaikos series, however, the blaugrana have a few things to figure out. The elephant in the room is their response to the Greens’ low post game. Xavi Pascual is not a fan of trapping, but given his team’s inability to consistently defend the three-point line, he might have to reconsider. The Barcelona defenders in the paint tried to steer their opponents toward the help, providing them with plenty of time to make the correct read. From that point on, defensive rotations often looked a step slower than they should be. Perhaps a more aggressive approach (i.e. going after the Panathinaikos player posting up as soon as he catches the ball or puts it on the floor), could buy help defenders the few extra ticks of a second they needs in order to close out on shooters. On offense, the game plan offers no such dilemmas. The home team needs to make outside shots. Alex Arbines could help.

Life is simpler but not necessarily easier for the Greens. The very post-up actions that contributed to a sizable lead early in the series opener, should help them deal with the three guard lineup that helped Barcelona turn things around. But there are some tradeoffs between offense and defense: Jonas Maciulis can take any blaugrana guard down low, but Mike Bramos, a less polished post player, might be necessary to contain the likes of Saras and Huertas. On defense, the other major concern is stopping Ante Tomic, both on the pick and roll and with his back to the basket.

Lots of intriguing questions, let’s hope the answers are just as exciting.

Rod Higgins, 11/04/2013

Over on Euro-Step, Rob Scott explains Efes’ defense against the Spanoulis-orchestrated Olympiakos pick and roll: They have the four (Gönlüm/Savanovic) sitting deep in the paint to help against Spanoulis’ drives, giving the floor-stretching Printezis plenty of space to get his shot off.

sJacas, 11/04/2013

Quick Notes

• CSKA’s starting five of Teo-Weems-Khryapa-Erceg-Kaun is now 77-43 in 29 minutes of play. This lineup is pounding its opponents, and Viktor Khryapa has put up 13 points, 8 rebounds and 10 assists as a small forward in those 29 minutes.
• Real Madrid have their own power lineup: The SRod-Carroll-Rudy-Reyes-Slaughter five is 88-51 in 35 minutes of play after accumulating a 13-3 in 6 minutes today. They’ve been annihilating opponents on the offensive glass, collecting 48.6% of potential rebounds on the offensive glass and 84.4% on the defensive glass. (Typical distribution is 30-70)
• Carroll played more than half of his minutes at small forward as part of three-guard-lineups. Laso is going small against a relatively short opponent.
• This (successful) Olympiakos lineup has seen surprisingly little floor-time. Mainly because Kyle Hines enters the court when some of the starters are taking their break.
• Jamon Lucas had all six of his assists to Kerem Gonlum. Vassilis Spanoulis fed Giorgios Printezis for five baskets.

sJacas, 10/04/2013

sJacas, 10/04/2013

sJacas, 10/04/2013

Quick Notes: CSKA-Baskonia G1 89-78

• Tabak modified his starting lineup to deal with CSKA’s tall Teo-Weems-Khryapa-Erceg-Kaun starting five; Brought San Emeterio instead of Causeur. Also brought Lampe back into the starting lineup to play alongside Cook (thus far the Cook-Pleiß and Heurtel-Lampe pairings had been a regular thing).
• The Baskonia starting five had played just seven minutes together in the entire season, prior to starting in Moscow.
• CSKA opened the game 20-10 before their first substitution.
• Baskonia pressed Teodosic hard, but the Serb dealt routinely with the Baskonia defense and broke the pressure for a couple of easy lay-ups. Teodosic was 6-for-7 from the field in the first half, had 3 assists and did not turn the ball over.
• CSKA had a fantastic night passing the basketball, accumulating 25 assists.
• Viktor Khryapa finished with 7 points, 8 rebounds and 7 assists.

sJacas, 10/04/2013

sJacas, 10/04/2013

sJacas, 10/04/2013

Barca stayed 23.2 points per 100 possessions below their season home average of 114.3 yesterday. But why?

Victor Sada‘s role in this game was crucial, and it may remain that way for the rest of the series.

Similar to the treatment Ricky Rubio had to deal with in the 2010/11 season, Panathinaikos played Diamantidis off of Sada as a help defender in the paint to help defend post up plays and the pick and roll. Diamantidis completely ignored Sada most of the time.

Stagnation is no good

Sada spent most of the disastrous opening phase, which ended when Sada was replaced by Huertas at 2-13 after five minutes, waiting on his spot instead of cutting to the hoop and creating an opportunity for himself or a teammate.

As in the following sequence:

Sada sets two screens for Lorbek & Tomic, one for a post up for Lorbek and another one for a cut for Tomic. Diamantidis goes for the double team against Lorbek, while Sada floats unguarded at free throw line height – unpunished.

Diamantidis also helped away from the strong side corner against Barca’s world-class 1/5 pick and roll. This enabled an easy pass-to-catch-and-shoot for Sada, but Panathinaikos did not bother one bit.

Against Navarro’s curls/spot-ups, Diamantidis rotated far off of Sada to deny the drive inside or the open three point shot. He also proceeded to help against Lorbek’s post up (getting the steal here) while Sada was left unguarded on the extended elbow.

This is a particularly obvious example for Barca’s illnesses in the opening phase: Navarro runs off a screen and executes high pick and roll with Tomic. Diamantidis is helping inside to defend against the roll and against Lorbek’s post-up. Sada, meanwhile, is waiting in the corner, wide-open. Tomic, a fantastic passer, has an open passing lane to Sada, but chooses to go for the mid range shot, which he misses.

Cutting to the basket brings results

Sada was re-introduced in the fourth quarter and immediately showed great off-ball activity, which played a crucial part in winning the game for the hosts.

In the following play, Sada cuts to the basket behind Ukic’s back to finish Wallace’s pass with an easy lay-up.

In the next play, Navarro runs a high screen and roll with Tomic; Sada cuts to the basket behind Diamantidis and, again, finishes with the layup.

In the following scene (following a broken play), Sada’s cut pulls Ukic away from Jasikevicius, who drains the open three. Typical case of opening space for a teammate.

Then, again, Sada cuts along the baseine as Navarro and Tomic orchestrate a high screen and roll. He catches Navarro’s feed and immediately finds Tomic for the high percentage shot inside.

Last but not least, Jasikevicius drives inside from the left wing and finds Sada for the easy layup. Again a cut instead of waiting in the corner.

Barca’s three point shooting has been shaky this season and Panathinaikos appear to be comfortable rotating off of Huertas, Ingles and Lorbek and above all Sada, as well as going under the screen against Huertas in pick and roll.

While the first three are capable of making long range shots, Sada must be active off the ball for the offense not to collapse again.

sJacas, 10/04/2013

Extended (11-minute) highlights (Link)

sJacas, 09/04/2013

Nothing short of the expected, “working the ref” is already in full flow:

Giannakopoulos, who attended the game in Palau Blaugrana tonight, stated: “Enough is enough. Something is fishy. I challenge the appropriate authorities to audit the bank accounts of the refereeing commissionaires, especially the one of Mr. Rigas” (Euroleague Director of Referees).

Xavi Pascual, with the win in the bag, said:

I could talk about the referees but I think it’s unreasonable. At the end, we all would finish crying and fined by the Euroleague due to talking badly about refs. It would be a circus.

(hat-tip to Gon)

sJacas, 09/04/2013

Some quick dirty facts:

• Barca were 27-12 with their three-guard-lineups (Huertas/Sada-Saras-Navarro)
• Lasme’s three offensive fouls now put him ahead in the league-wide ranking, with 17 offensive fouls in total (Maik Zirbes is 2nd, with 14)
• Both teams stayed far below season average on the offensive end. The game had a 89.3 offensive rating. Pace was just where it had been expected.
• Here’s the Game Chart
• Here’s the player of the game and what the boxscore looked like, while he was on the floor

sJacas, 09/04/2013

Well, that was not a bad start to the playoffs. Barcelona survived a thriller, beating Panathinaikos 72-70. Here’s a few thoughts:

- The three-guard lineups continued to serve Pascual well during the second half. Victor Sada emerged as a much needed scoring threat from the weak side. With Saras on the floor Barcelona was + 18. And Navarro made a couple of big threes. If Huertas regains his confidence, Barcelona will have plenty of small ball options. Interestingly enough, though, Panathinaikos did not look for mismatches inside. Michael Bramos saw significant minutes on the floor in order to contain Jasikevicius and even when Maciulis was matched up against his smaller countryman, the Greens did not create enough opportunities at the post. Expect Argyris Pedoulakis to take notice.

- After Lasme torched Barcelona’s pick and roll defense in the 3rd quarter (and after he fouled out on a couple of tough offensive fouls), Pascual resorted to a switch defense in overtime. CJ Wallace did a nice job staying in front of the Panathinaikos captain and it remains to be seen whether the blaugrana coach will trust this strategy for extended periods going forward.

- Joe Ingles needs to step up. Erazem Lorbek needs to wake up.

- Excellent offensive game by James Gist as a stretch four. He made his threes, attacked off the dribble and made sound decisions with the ball…and yet Panathinaikos were – 9 with him on the floor. Needless to say, his defensive rotations need to improve.

- Navarro and Diamantidis logged 40 minutes apiece. Ukic played 37 (and recorded 7 assists along with just one turnover), Saras stayed on the floor for 27 – the last time he had played so many minutes was with Panathinaikos against Maccabi in the 2011/12 playoffs. The depth of both teams will be tested in game 2.

Rod Higgins, 09/04/2013

sJacas, 09/04/2013

We’re going to overtime. After Diamantidis tied the game with about a minute remaining, neither team could score a basket. Tomic got a great look off a baseline inbound play, but Gist came up with a huge block.

Rod Higgins, 09/04/2013

Panathinaikos take a 6-point lead into the fourth quarter. The Greens basically dared Huertas to make a three and he couldn’t convert; his teammates did not shoot much better either. Alex Arbines has not played much this season, but tonight Pascual really misses him (he’s out due to a last-minute injury). Meanwhile the Diamantidis-Lasme combo worked to perfection. Saras keeps playing excellent ball, but will he have enough help down the stretch?

Rod Higgins, 09/04/2013

The first half is in the books and it looks like a great series is in the making.

For Panathinaikos the first quarter was all about mismatches: Sofo’s strength vs Tomic at the post, Maciulis taking on Ingles on the low block, Diamantidis and Ukic trying to make the most of their size and/or speed vs Barcelona’s defensively-challenged guards – on paper that is. And while the initial actions in these situations were not always productive (Diamantidis, Ukic and even Sofo do not have a particular efficient game so far), they did force the blaugrana defense toward the strong side and resulted in great looks from beyond the arc. On the other end, Tomic was the sole bright spot. Lorbek was in regular season form, Navarro looked out of rhythm and Barcelona could not buy a basket from the outside, allowing the Greens to seal off the paint. Then Saras happened.

While Jasikevicius’ offensive contributions were not exactly shocking, the fact that Barcelona’s defense looked especially sharp with a three guard lineup featuring Saras, Huertas and Navarro is both a testament to the effort of this trio and the power of Pascual’s system. At the same time Barcelona connected on open perimeter looks, Nate Jawai made sure that the center position was productive for a full twenty minutes and Navarro rediscovered his mojo. For Panathinaikos, James Gist’s seven points were the only good news.

As for the possesions game, PAO have one turnover less. Should be an exciting second half.

Rod Higgins, 09/04/2013

sJacas, 09/04/2013

It’s 20 minutes before FCB vs PAO tips off and one has to wonder who will win the possessions game. The Greens turn the ball over more than any other playoff team but make up for it in large part by attacking the offensive glass. Barcelona, on the other hand, are an elite defensive rebounding team and know how to force miscues. Who will prevail?

Rod Higgins, 09/04/2013

Linkage 09-04-2013

Various blogs around the web have been busy covering the upcoming quarter finals:

• The guys from ELA expect CSKA to advance over Baskonia, but only in 4-5 games. They also look back at the infamous ’96 final that was decided by a controversial last-second run-in.
• On Eurohoops, Erazem Lorbek claims that there’s no room for feelings of revenge in pro sports and that the series against Panathinaikos is “50-50″.
• Rafa Uehara perceives Maccabi Tel Aviv has having been overlooked, sees CSKA Moscow as top favourites for the title (this appears to be the consesus now that Mickeal is out) and expects Panathinaikos to have good chances for an upset against a “somewhere between dominant and vulnerable” Barcelona.

sJacas, 09/04/2013

Remember this?

That was two years ago, but since then

1. Barca are using Navarro as more of a pick and roll ballhandler rather than running him off screens,
2. Huertas, who is seeing increased on-ball time this season, has replaced Rubio,
3. Sada has optimized his off-ball game despite poor long range shooting and
4. Panathinaikos employ a new coach who enjoys less credit and therefore has little room for risky maneuvers.

sJacas, 09/04/2013

The guys over at Euroleagueadventures have published their Barca-Panathinaikos preview.

sJacas, 08/04/2013

¹Using Top16 Pyth% instead of actual Winning Percentage (Log5 Formula)
²Something the defense does have control over. I again point you to this piece by Pomeroy.

¹ With the sole intention of guiding you to the new database
² Unlike his three years younger colleague Leo Westermann who’s been a regular in French youth national teams from the under-16 selection onwards, Heurtel only joined the French selection for the first time for the under-20 Eurobasket 2008.
³ Here’s more on their pick and roll offense