(sJacas)

On the day the Beko-BBL celebrates its fan-voted Allstars in Bonn, here are a bunch of graphs to outline team trends at the halfway mark.

(Raw data from RealGM schedules and team stats; post uses graph code from mbostock)

Bayern lead the league in win percentage (Win%) after 17 games, but Alba Berlin rank first in Pythagorean/Expected Win Percentage (Exp%), which is a win estimate based on offensive and defensive rating (or points for/against, if tempo free stats are unavailable). “Luck” is here merely the margin between expected and actual win percentage.

Three teams — Alba, Ulm and Würzburg — have performed on a level far better than their win/loss record indicates, while another three — Artland, Frankfurt, MBC — are unlikely to maintain their current win/loss record if 2nd half (season) performance is similar to first half performance.

Team Graphs

The team graphs below show offensive and defensive rating adjusted for strength of schedule. If you drop 110 points per 100 possessions on an opponent that conceded 100 points per 100 possession in all remaining games, that means you’re plus 10 in offensive rating for the game. The graphs are not game-by-game, though, but show three games running averages, to not follow every one-game variance (although three games is a fairly short range already). The black line is offensive rating, the invisible line on the other end of the painted area is defensive rating. If the area is red, that means defensive rating has been worse during the three game stretch than offensive rating. Remember: defensive rating is the lower the better. Also consider the scale of the graph, on the Y-axis, which is not consistent.

Playoff Ranks

Bayern München

Akin to their Euroleague performance, Bayern are playing elite-level offense in the BBL, producing extensive stretches of offensive performances 15 to 20 points per 100 possessions above opponents’ defensive season averages. Defense, though ranking third, is closer to league average than it is to the league-leading defense of Alba Berlin.

Early-season dominance has gone missing in recent weeks, with a busy Euroleague schedule possibly taking its toll — even if they are far from alone amongst their BBL rivals in playing lots of games this year.

Brose Baskets

Failure to defend on an even remotely acceptable level — they ranked dead bottom in defensive rating, at 116.6 points per 100 possessions — had been instrumental in Bamberg’s Euroleague exodus, but Bamberg have really been turning it up a gear in the BBL in past weeks, boosted by the arrival of D’Or Fischer.

Offense has dropped likewise, for some reason, and there’s been a visible and measurable change of character with Fischer patrolling the paint and Sanders and Harris disrupting passes with far greater activity than the irregular Markota and the still-rusty Velickovic.

Alba Berlin

Alba Berlin have played a remarkable campaign to date, with even a 13 and 4 record still betraying the quality this team has brought to the floor. Only mean-spirited minds as they undoubtedly exist will hope for an unexpected late-season collapse as it happened last season.

Alba have been the only team that has been defending on an elite level all throughout, holding opponents between five and 15 points per 100 possessions below their season averages through every three-game stretch they’ve had so far. Offense has collapsed occasionally, but super defense remains a fantastic foundation for future success.

EWE Baskets Oldenburg

Oldenburg were second in defensive rating last season and made Bamberg work for their title far harder than a 3-0 finals sweep indicates. They’ve simply not maintained their top-level defense from 2012/13, ranking 4th in defensive rating, but very close to league average.

They escaped an extensive stretch of terrible mid-December performances recently. This is the league’s best team not currently active in Euro competition.

Telekom Baskets Bonn

Bonn were the team of the hour early on. While defense has been dancing around league average, offense has come to a standstill against a fairly easy schedule of opponents. All of this is strongly correlated to topscorer Benas Veikalas’ performance, a player who drops 17.6 points a game on 72.4 percent true shooting on (Eurocup & BBL) opponents when Bonn is winning but regresses to 11.8 points a game on 47.0 percent true shooting in losses.

Artland Dragons

The Artland Dragons are 11 and 6 despite having been outscored. Barring improvement, this win/loss record will be difficult to sustain. The good news is that this is true for a bunch of borderline playoff teams behind them as well.

Ratiopharm Ulm

Ulm have been playing better than their pure win/loss record suggests. Ulm are capable of blowing out opponents and appear to be less of a grind-it-out team.

Offensive performance, ranking a more-than-satisfying second in the league in Year One after John Bryant, has seen some strong fluctuations (consider the scale of the graph) — possibly due to Ulm’s frequent long range shooting.

Fraport Skyliners

Frankfurt, youngest team in the league, are shocking the league with their 9-8 record, but they’re smart not to relax, having recently signed experienced big man Dane Watts.

Their overall performance has been that of a team expected to win two-, rather than three in six.

Non-Playoff Ranks