Archive for the ‘Euroleague’ Category
Podcast: Real Madrid versus CSKA, D-League and Analytics
George Rowland and sJacas discuss George’s upcoming trip to the Real Madrid vs CSKA game, plus Moreyball in the D-League and findings from the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference 2014.
In Non-Moving Pictures: Partizan, CSKA and the Control of Pace
As some of you may have noticed, this blog has been making an effort to decode the meaning of an ancient cliché in basketball lingo: controlling the pace. We’ve discussed it in both a thick-accented podcast and a detailed account of Madrid’s perfect season.
Last week, Ettore Messina (most likely inspired by our work), joined in the conversation, as part of his breakdown of CSKA Moscow’s defense:
First, it’s paramount that we do not allow fastbreak points. Those occur when you take ill-advised shots or turn the ball over. Conversely, taking good shots within the flow of the offense usually gives you a good chance to grab an offensive rebound or at the very least to get back and set up your defense.
Beko-BBL Graphs: Team Trends
(sJacas)
On the day the Beko-BBL celebrates its fan-voted Allstars in Bonn, here are a bunch of graphs to outline team trends at the halfway mark.
(Raw data from RealGM schedules and team stats; post uses graph code from mbostock)
Bayern lead the league in win percentage (Win%) after 17 games, but Alba Berlin rank first in Pythagorean/Expected Win Percentage (Exp%), which is a win estimate based on offensive and defensive rating (or points for/against, if tempo free stats are unavailable). “Luck” is here merely the margin between expected and actual win percentage.
In Non-Moving Pictures: John Bryant as a Stretch Five
Partizan Belgrade and Bayern Munich are two very different teams. Partizan play at a slow pace and have the third-worst offense in Euroleague. Bayern play at an above average pace and have the third-best offense in the competition. Partizan have the youngest roster in Euroleague. Bayern’s average player is near his prime years. Bayern have money to spend. Partizan need money to survive.
However, when these teams met at the Audi Dome last week, it became apparent that they share one common trait: they rely on power forwards who can’t spread the floor with their shooting. Joffrey Lauvergne, Djordje Gagic, Deon Thompson and Chevon Troutman practically invite opponents to help off them when they step outside the paint. As it has already been discussed, this deficiency tends to hurt pick and roll execution. However, the power forward is not the only frontline position which can contribute to spacing. Bayern look to John Bryant, their starting center, for help in this area:
23-0
After cruising past Barca in Sunday’s Clasico, Real Madrid are 23 and zero to open the season¹. Average margin of victory? 21.3 points.
Luck, to go along with top-notch quality, is usually a factor in long winning streaks, but Real Madrid’s so-far flawless record is the result of flat-out domination: Dropping offensive ratings of 121.9 (Euroleague) and 117.1² (ACB) points per 100 possessions on opponents while holding them to ratings of 88.9 and 90.5, respectively, on defense, is uncalled for in modern Euroleague/ACB history. Only five games – road wins in Murcia, Gran Canaria, Valencia, Badalona and Milan – finished in single digits.
Easy stops
It is easy to assume Real Madrid’s dominance starts with stops on defense, but there is arguably a hidden context to their rock-solid defensive performance (first in defensive rating in both Euroleague and ACB): Having watched all ten Euroleague matches, five to six ACB encounters and a number of corresponding statements from coaches and players, I would speculate that a bunch of opponents have been sacrificing offensive performance in pursuit of the mysterious “controlling the pace”. I understand the raw theory behind this: slow the game down, take in-control shots when the backcourt is sufficiently covered, keep their shooters out of rhythm. The problem is that offensive output is likely dropping when you are playing out-of-character offense, like Bamberg did in Madrid in week 2. And: Real Madrid are not different from anyone else in that they are playing better offense off stops (steals, defensive rebounds) than dead ball situations. You want to score on them whatever way it is possible – granted, easier said than done – rather than sacrificing quick high-value shots in order to extend possessions.