Last summer ITG tried to keep you regularly updated on offseason moves made by Euroleague team with a series of Offseason Radar posts. A year later, our staff (aka three dudes with internet access), have been short on time, so a trio of posts on the workings of the European hoops market should suffice. This is an effort to identify some common themes and emerging trends on how the game will be played next season, position by position.

Guards: Initiators and finishers

Don’t get me wrong – off-the-ball movement, proper spacing and accurate passes are as significant as ever. But an interesting question is how these fundamental concepts are related to shot creation. Take Olympiacos and Khimki from last season.

The back to back champs managed to reduce turnovers and increase assists compared to their 2012 title run, by generating quality looks from beyond the arc. The Russian side led the Euroleague in assists, thanks to a bunch of eye-pleasing motion sets involving pin-down screens, high lows and screen-the-screener actions. In both cases, however, it was individual creativity that often maximized the effectiveness of those principles. Vassilis Spanoulis and Zoran Planinic forced the defense to move, whether they were running the pick and roll or, in the case of the Croatian guard, posting up. That was the starting point – and a necessary precondition – for proper teamwork.

Even without looking at their overall body of work, this sort of impact provides plenty of arguments for the seven-digit deals both players signed this summer. After spending a boatload of money on less influential players, Efes seem to have gotten it right this summer by signing Planinic, pairing him with the versatile Jamon Gordon and surrounding him with reliable shooters and strong cutters (more on them later). Coach Oktay Mahmuti has been running post up plays for Gordon ever since their Galatasaray days, so Planinic should fit right in, while also upgrading Efes’ pick and roll game.

On other end of the spectrum we had Siena. Another elite passing team and a top-5 offense, the Italian champions also relied heavily on their lead guard, Bobby Brown, who accounted for nearly one third of their assists, led the Euroleague in scoring, shot the ball very well and kept his turnovers in check. But compared to his counterparts in Olympiacos and Khimki, Brown took advantage of spacing providing to him as opposed to creating for his teammates. In other words, Brown operated more as a finisher and his scoring is only small part of the equation. His assist distribution was less balanced compared to Planinic and especially Spanoulis, with the Siena centers being the main beneficiaries of his passing.

This difference could be attributed to the fact that Siena’s offensive structure was already in place when their lead guard attacked. If the defense stayed home on shooters, Brown had a lot of room to run the two-man game, either for himself or the screener – and when that screener was Tomas Ress he would pop out to the three-point line. If the defense rotated, there were a bunch of early kickout options which often set up the extra pass for an open three. Olympiacos and Khimki could not spread the floor as effectively as Siena, so their offensive structure would take shape as their lead guards were making their move. That approach opened up more options, but also demanded a higher level of decision making by Spanoulis and Planinic as pick and roll guards.

This dichotomy explains why great things should be expected by Daniel Hackett now that he takes on the role of primary shot creator in Siena’s resilient system – those who watched the Italian playoffs already know. It also explains the uncertainty over the future of Bo McCalebb. One of the most celebrated products of the Palaestra, the American guard spent a mediocre season at Fenerbahce. The poorly assembled roster of the Turkish powerhouse had a lot to do with it, as Bo struggled to find the openings that came about so effortlessly at Siena.

It’s no coincidence that his productivity would take a hit when he shared the floor with Mike Batiste, a prototypical pick and roll big. Whether Batiste was playing power forward, allowing his man to ignore him on the perimeter and help inside, or center, rolling hard to the basket, there was just not enough room for McCalebb to put his plan A in motion and get to the rim. Zeljko Obradovic does not agree with that plan. He prefers his guards to be initiators, not finishers. In other words, he wants them to contribute to the structure before benefiting from it. This is why Fenerbahce are expected to spend top dollar in order to find that type of guard. That said, the prospect of Emir Prelzdic as a full-time pick and roll guard is quite intriguing if he finally stays focused for a full season.

Another team in the market for a lead guard is Barcelona. Spanoulis, Brown, Marcus Williams, Andrew Goudelock and Milos Teodosic have all been linked to the blaugrana. The reasons for that potential signing are quite unclear. Even without Pete Mickeal Barcelona are not exactly lacking in shot creators inside and out. And the precedent set by Ricky Rubio and Marcelinho Huertas indicates that the ball will still be in the hands of Juan Carlos Navarro when it really matters. Sure, Rubio couldn’t shoot and Huertas doesn’t always get to the basket. But their relatively limited role did not result mainly from their limitations. Xavi Pascual has been hesitant to simply spread the floor and simply let his ‘other’ guards go to work on the pick and roll. Why would that change now, given the emergence of Ante Tomic as perhaps the top post-up player in Europe?

Of course Tomic’s success is a great example of Pascual’s ability to adapt. But there are only so many shot creation opportunities to go around and Barcelona could make their life more complicated by trying to spread them around. Oleson and Abrines could carry part of the load. A more open-minded approach to transition basketball could also pay dividends offensively. Sometimes shot creation can often clash with those other fundamental concepts. Barcelona and other teams looking for lead guards should take this risk into account.