Pablo Laso and Xavi Pascual may come across as polar opposites when it comes to coaching philosophies, but it could be argued that the styles of Ettore Messina and David Blatt are just as different. The Italian favourite and the American underdog seem to hold contrasting views in most aspects of the game – size, pace, offensive principles, defensive flexibility and so on. This is why the less hyped of the two semifinals in Mian, between CSKA Moscow and Maccabi Tel Aviv, could be just as intriguing as the clásico that everyone has been waiting for.

Then again you wouldn’t know that judging from the two top – 16 game between the two powerhouses. CSKA destroyed Maccabi in Moscow and pulled off a gutsy win at Tel Aviv despite  - or thanks to, if you are one of those people – the absence of Milos Teodosic (Maccabi were also without a key player in Devin Smith). This why the Russians should be treated as the favorites, even after two embarrassing homes losses on the eve of the final four against Lokomotiv Kuban, which had Messina exploring the depths of human nature. However, CSKA’s VTB League struggles have served as reminders about certain holes which can be exploited by Maccabi.

For a Messina-coached team, CSKA have occasionally appeared shockingly incompetent in transition defense, a deficiency which could play right into Maccabi’s free flowing offensive tendencies. At the same time, they have also looked vulnerable in the perimeter. Not only have they allowed Loko to make 15 of 32 three pointers in the first two games of their playoffs series, but CSKA have also gotten away with giving up a bunch of open looks from beyond the arc to other opponents (the quarterfinals against Panathinaikos offer many good examples of this issue). Simply put, they might not be as lucky against an opponent that ranks third in three-point percentage.

On the other hand, Maccabi have even more problems to work out regarding their own defense. CSKA scored at will in both games, as their ball movement, size and, somewhat unexpectedly, speed seemed to overwhelm the Israeli champs. At Tel Aviv Aaron Jackson, Sonny Weems and Kyle Hines had a field day on the open court, as CSKA scored 15 transition points (after a Maccabi miss or turnover, within the first 8 seconds of the shot clock) in the first half. With Maccabi turning the ball over at nearly a quarter of their possessions this sort of effectiveness is pretty reasonable. Therefore, Blatt will need better decision making from his ball handlers. Joe Ingles is one of them:

One of the foundations of CSKA’s defense is leading slashers into the interior help without giving up passing lanes. In other words, shot creators need to be patient to figure out what this defense is giving them. This is where Ingles gets it wrong on this play.  He picks up his dribble too early, doesn’t recognize Fridzon helping from the strong side and drives straight into Sasha Kaun, eventually trying to force a pass to Alex Tyus, which is picked up by Hines and leads to a jump ball. The Australian should watch some tape of Tyrece Rice from the same game:

With Kaun dropping back on the pick and roll, Rice can afford to keep his dribble alive and get in the paint. Meanwhile Tyus has gotten underneath the rim, preventing the CSKA center from  fully committing on the ball. This more patient approach offers two advantages. First, Rice gets a good look at one of his patented floaters (which he made on this play). Second, the CSKA defense is forced to move – notice how Victor Khryapa slides toward the paint to help the helping Kaun, freeing up Guy Pnini on the left wing. Maccabi like to keep opponents on their toes and taking advantage of every opening, regardless of how many seconds are left on the shot clock. Against CSKA’s length, however, Blatt should prepare his players to let the defense come to them.

In a half court setting, Maccabi’s defense was dominated inside and out. CSKA could pass over the defense and rotations left a lot to be desired. Looking ahead to Friday, Blatt needs to do a better job of exposing the spacing issues which arise when Kyle Hines plays power forward.

In plays like this one, David Blu simply needs to leave Hines all alone behind the three point line and help the undersize Tyus take away the passing lane toward Kaun (who scored on this possession). Maccabi should be better prepared to defend in such situations, which include double teams when CSKA’s big perimeter players are posting up:

Here Blu and Ricky Hickman have just trapped Sonny Weems on the low block. The ball is kicked out to Hines and Pnini performs a typical rotation toward the ball, leaving Yogev Ohayon in charge of two shooters in the weak side. Hines swings the ball to Khryapa, extra pass to Jackson, open corner three made. On Friday, Pnini should probably stay closer to Khryapa, leaving Hickman and Blu to deal with the only threat posed by Hines on this area of the floor – a drive toward the basket. Maccabi could also adopt a more practical approach when they have to deal with Hines as a screener:

It would be surprising if Maccabi defended so aggressively against the pick and roll, even when the ball is in the hands of more aggressive slasher than Vitaly Fridzon. Joe Ingles in particular should be quite effective as a switch defender when Hines rolls to the basket. On this play the trap backfires once again, as Hines receives the pass from Fridzon and proceeds to immediately find Kaun inside. Speaking of CSKA’s pick and roll, the limitations of Maccabi’s centers could be a deciding point of the semifinal:

Sofoklis Schortsanitis hedges out against Weems, freeing up Nenad Krstic for one of his patented mid-range jumpers. Once again the dominoes in Maccabi fall: Ohauyon covers the Serbian center, who finds Jackson on the corner for another made three. It looks like a safer bet would be to force CSKA’s ball handlers – especially Jackson and Teodosic who should be less than fully fit on Friday – to look for their own shot off the dribble, an option that Messina doesn’t really aprove.  Another option for Blatt is his trademark matchup zone, which did not make a difference in the previous two games. CSKA’s size had a lot to with it:

The passing angle on this Weems/Kaun pick and roll is not ideal, but the ball still gets to the Serbian center, as Tyus’ positioning does not allow him to make up for his size disadvantage. Again, though, Hines’ man (Ingles on this play) should have rotated deeper into the paint. On another play, Hines was the one creating the mismatch, as he found Hickman in front of him at the top of the key, as part of Maccabi’s zone formation. Hines cut toward the rim, forcing the American guard to follow him inside (and foul him). Had Blu picked up Hines, Ohayon would once again find himself between two shooters on the weak side:

It is pretty clear then that CSKA can create more problems inside and out. This is why they are the favorites. At the same time, Blatt can afford to take some risks that could  change the discussion: Maccabi will probably allow some CSKA shots that could reduce the significance of X’s and O’s and test the Russian team’s character and confidence. Needless to say, all champions need to answer this call at some point.