You see, this has not been just a Cinderella story. This was a first glimpse at a rising power. Partizan’s method allowed them to make the playoffs two seasons in a row back in 2008 and 2009, before selling the rights to their core players (Nole Veličković, Uroš Tripković, Nikola Peković, Milenko Tepić) and advancing to the final four in 2010. If financial considerations do not tear this team apart, the rest of Europe should consider themselves warned.

That was what the future looked like (from where I was sitting at least) for Partizan 11 months ago. Having been knocked out of the top-16 in heartbreaking fashion, the Belgrade club had a lot to look forward to. And after surviving another summer of financial uncertainty, they entered this season ready to shock a world that somehow expected to be shocked. Vladimir Lucic, an energetic forward who had come to personify Partizan’s fiery playing style was dealt to Valencia. But the front office managed to keep the core of the team together and reinforce it with a couple of exciting French prospects. Then the season tipped off and we experienced a letdown.

Before going any further, it should be pointed out that it’s very early. And that despite their 1-3 record, Partizan are still in the run for a top-16 spot. If they make it and retain their Adriatic League crown against an increasingly stiff competition, their season will have been an undeniable success. Still, their progress hasn’t met expectations. Maybe that’s our fault, but Partizan have a few problems to sort out, especially on offense. Their offensive rating of 105,3 over their first four games, is identical to the Euroleague average and not exactly an alarming number. However, a closer look at Partizan’s offensive stats hints at some worrying trends: they are dead last in efficient field goal percentage, a position which reflects poor shooting from all over the floor: at the rim (their percentage is the third worst in Euroleague) from mid-range (below average) and beyond the arc (sixth from the bottom). And since they can’t spread the floor, their ball movement suffers, as evidenced by the fact that they average more turnovers than assists.

The small sample disclaimer should obviously be applied and there have been some good news – most notably a monster performance on the offensive glass and a reduced number of turnovers compared to last season. But Partizan have struggled mightily in their two away games, including a miserable offensive output against defensive lightweights Budivelnik Kiev. Good Euroleague teams are able to score – and win – on the road. Partizan struggle to do that, in large part because a lot of their possessions look like this:

Based on this screenshot it could be argued that compared to last season the most noticeable absence hasn’t been Lucic, but Davis Bertans. After tearing his right ACL last June, the Latvian sharpshooter is expected to miss most of this season, depriving Partizan of their only stretch four. Despite shooting a respectable percentage in limited three point attempts last season, Joffrey Lauvergne has started his first Euroleague campaign ice cold and is not doing better in the Adriatic League. Djordje Gagic, the other option for Dusko Vujosevic at power forward, does not have that sort of range.

And that brings us back to the screenshot. Almost every single 1-5 Partizan pick and roll this season, is met with the opposing power forward rotating deep into the paint, leaving his man wide open in the perimeter, checking the roll man and giving his frontcourt partner all the time in the world to help on the ball and recover. The ball handler should counter by hitting the wide open man on the perimeter, but as long as he can’t hit the three with any consistency, opponents won’t make any adjustments. This slows down Partizan’s pick and roll executions and turns these actions into high-low post ups, where the roll man has to create a shot himself – if he catches the entry pass.

While this glitch in Dule’s playbook provides an explanation for the quiet start to point guard Leo Westermann’s season – even passing wizards need sufficient room to operate – the lack of proper spacing is evident even when Partizan resort to non-pick and roll plays. Despite their regular size advantage in every position, their trademark post ups are often equally problematic, as opponents simply pack the paint with help defenders. The slashing abilities of Bogdan Bogdanovic, Dragan Milosavljevic and Tarence Kinsey are not maximized as they often have to settle for mid-range jumpers off the dribble due to all the traffic inside – those three have combined to average 13 two-point field goal attempts outside the paint. And their three pointers rarely result from proper spacing and passing. Partizan’s shooters rely on screens off the ball, instead of openings created by defensive rotations to get good looks:

The main point of this video is that for Partizan three point shooting is in most cases not a tool for floor spacing but an end to itself. Even on assisted makes, it’s hard to see what the other options were on those plays, other than the recipient of the pass going one on one. And while assisted three pointers are widely considered as the paragon of efficient shot selection, Partizan’s shooters at the wing positions have more work to do on those shots than, say, Mike Bramos at Panathinaikos. They have to get to the ball, as opposed to waiting for it, and usually have a hand on their face when they pull up. The context of Partizan’s three-point shooting makes Bogdanovic’s 44,4% marksmanship quite impressive, but also explains the team’s overall struggles from distance. Another consequence of this type of shooting is that there is a very small likelihood to spread the floor and open up driving lanes from the weak side:

Those plays represent Partizan’s best chance to open up scoring opportunities inside. On the first one, Milosavljevic, who has just hit two straight threes in similar situations, draws Dorsey’s attention, allowing Gagic to get to the basket with no resistance. On the second, Tomic has to honour Westermann’s improved shooting off the dribble and the French guard puts his ability to see over the defense to great use (even though Nachbar’s late rotation inside helps). A similar scenario unfolds on the last play, with the hedge out against Westermann opening up a driving lane for Lauvergne on the pick and pop.

The question is whether Partizan’s ball handlers can make enough threes off the dribble or coming off screens to increase this sort of looks. The early indications are not particularly encouraging, so Dule has to look for alternatives. Dejan Musli has been getting a lot of good (albeit contested) looks inside but he can’t convert them at the rate he did last season. Fouls have been another issue for the young Serbian center, who simply needs to produce more. Another solution could be more movement by the Partizan bigs – and a Gagic-Lauvergne combo could pay significant dividends in this area. Lineups featuring this duo have posted healthy offensive numbers, as Gagic has improved his passing skills and is more serviceable outside the paint, allowing the Frenchman to keep defenders guessing: Lauvergne can face up in the perimeter, finish inside as a roll man and play with his back to the basket. Gagic gives him enough room to explore all those options; Musli’s traditional big man game tends to limit them.

Another way for Partizan to get around these problems would be to attack before their opponents have a chance to pack the paint. Dule has them playing at a slower pace than any other Euroleague team, but they have looked very sharp in transition, at least in their two home games against Nanterre and Fenerbahce. What seems to be missing is more plays like the following:

Even though Fener got back in those two possessions, Partizan still attacked quickly, instead of pulling back, as they are prone to do. Lauvergne is a unique power forward, as he runs the floor very well and has a size advantage against most of his opponents. This combination could serve him very well in secondary transition post ups. Despite his often exciting play, Partizan’s offense takes a hit when he is on the floor: an emphasis on this type of opportunities could help him change that. It could also help their slashers showcase their drive and dish game in more favourable conditions.

These changes are not easy to implement. Nor are they without risks – for instance, quicker decision making by an inexperienced group could lead to more turnovers. But Vujosevic has to find more space for his team. The offensive efficiency of Khimki from last season and Madrid whenever Reyes plays power forward indicates that success is possible without a stretch four. Then again, those teams do not have to go without one for forty minutes. This is a huge challenge, which can make Partizan even more intriguing to watch.