The Defensive Stats Initiative
Introduction
The shortage of meaningful defensive data in the boxscore is a re-occuring topic among fans and analysts. Basketball statkeepers chart blocks, steals and defensive rebounds (plus fouls) for a player whose team is in a defensive possession, but there is plenty of uncharted action which preceeds a possession-altering action.
The advanced stats movement has brought us interesting concepts such as adjusted plus/minus, an attempt to specify an originally player-unspecific stat (offensive and defensive team efficiency) by adjusting for quality of teammates and opponents while taking a large sample of data into consideration. The result is a valuable measure of overall offensive/defensive impact, but it is hardly returning a detailed performance analysis.
Several analysts have tackled the problem in the recent past. Here are key links:
- Luke Winn re-ignited the discussion in autumn 2011 with his groundbreaking work on defensive stats for several NCAA top teams.
- Rob Mahoney continued with defining categories, partly basing on Winn’s previous work.
- In measuring defense, Rod Higgins comments on the work of Winn and Mahoney while bringing in his own perspective, gained from charting the Olympiacos-Bilbao game.
For Euroleague
A Euroleague Regular Season gameday consists of 12 games, a Top16 gameday has eight. Our goal is to assemble a group of basketball geeks big and committed enough to chart every Euroleague game. One game per week per person is a doable task. If you’re interested, please contact us here in the comment sections or via contact.
At the basis of such work lies the definition of statistical categories. I find that there are four key criteria to design such categories. The categories must …
- make a meaningful statement about defensive performance,
- be statistically digestable,
- be simple to understand and
- not exceed a maximum number of categories.
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Possible categories (constantly updated with new ideas)
- (A) Stealing / forcing turnovers
br>- Steals+: Steals leading to transition points, including FTs.
- Steals on the ball: How many times a player steals the ball vs his man.
- Steals off the ball: How many times a player steals the ball when helping out.
- Forced turnovers rate: to be defined
- Deflections: how many times a players knocks the ball loose and a teammate secures possession or an opponent is forced to throw it out of bounds.
- (B) Shotblocking
br>- Blocks+: Blocks leading to transition points, including FTs.
- Blocks on the ball: How many times a player blocks the ball vs his man.
- Blocks off the ball: How many times a player blocks the ball when helping out.
- (C) Defensive efficiency in one-on-one sequences (in PPP and FPP):
br>- Points allowed on post ups, measured in PPP (points per possessions); Also: Fouls conceded on post up possessions (FPP)
- Points (PPP) and fouls (FPP) conceded after switches (PnRs, off the ball screens, secondary breaks)
- Assists allowed on switches (team stat only)
- (D) Others
br>- Hedge rate, defined by Mahoney as “[...] Quantifying how often – or how far – a player hedges to counter a screen would provide an added level of defensive specificity.”
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The point of this intiative is to A) trigger a discussion in order to B) come up with meaningful categories that would allow us to start with, ideally, Top16 2012.
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http://www.in-the-game.org sJacas