BLOG.IN THE GAME

Averaging 18.4 points on 72 percent shooting and 10 rebounds while having Partizan in Top16 contention, Aleksandar Maric has been the star of the first round so far. Unsurprisingly, his play has made him the target of clubs and federations in almost no time: Serbia would like the Australian/Serbian to play for their national team, and lately there have been rumours (and just that) about a possible interest from Panathinaikos, with the status of Nikola Pekovic, who has an NBA opt out in his contract, unsure for next season.

Dusko Vujosevic and centers - an almost unrivalled success story that includes Nenad Kristic, Kosta Perovic, Nikola Pekovic, and now Aleksandar Maric, plus a nice 08/09 season performance by Stephane Lasme. All these five big men had their breakthrough playing for Vujosevic.

The system, the coach and the fact that I am playing here. I wasn’t playing much there. I wasn’t given the chance to play.

- Aleksandar Maric on the differences between Partizan and Granada (Euroleague.net) -

The 25-year-old, who had already averaged a double double in his senior season in Nebraska, had only 4.6 points per game last season in Granada as the backup of ASVEL’s Curtis Borchardt in his first pro season. The reason was, according to Maric, a lack of playing time. Even though his viewpoint is highly subjective, we can say that a certain Nikola Pekovic averaged 4.8 points per game in 20 Euroleague games in the 06/07 season for Partizan, a season before he exploded for 16.4 points and 6.9 rebounds.

What is it about Maric? Is the hype justified? I am trying to have a closer look at his game after watching the majority of his games and taking under consideration several statistics.

OFFENSE
Maric is listed 2.11m/6’11ft and 119kg on the club homepage - a huge body in the paint, maybe not quite in the Nikola Pekovic mold, but still very hard to deal with by most teams. What is most evident is his aggressiveness in all kinds of situations: posting up, chasing the rebound on both ends, finishing in the paint. As he did with Pekovic, Vujosevic is letting Maric establish deep position in the paint, with teammates frequently looking for high-low passing opportunities.

Maric doesn’t possess a huge arsenal of lowpost moves - another similarity with Pekovic - , but they are effective. He makes nice use of his off hand, which makes him tough to guard when he gets the ball deep, and recent opponents (Efes, Orléans) were consistently fronting him in order to deny the post feed. However, it is evident that the long postup where he creates the basket himself is only a minor factor in Maric’s game this season: 64.8 percent of Maric’s field goals (6.8 per game) were created by an assist, and if we consider that he collects 3.5 offensive rebounds per game and immedeately puts back a considerable number of those (having watched his games, I would say about half of those 3.5 result in direct tip-ins/putbacks), the number of unassisted field goals that are not tip-ins/putbacks is surprisingly low, probably circa one per game. A combination of very good screening, spacing, as well as Maric’s strong body enable him to establish those positions down deep, and he usually puts up a shot without hesitation.

However, the source of the majority of Maric’s points is the pick and roll, in both an indirect and direct way. In fact, when speaking about Maric’s success this season, we must aknowledge the excellent job the trio of Aleksandar Rasic, Bo McCalebb and Dusan Kecman is doing in driving to the basket and either directly dishing it off to Maric, or going all the way, drawing the defending big man’s attention, and - in particular against defenses that are slow in rotation - freeing Maric for the offensive putback. Partizan has been a top two offensive rebounding team in each of the last three years with completely different rosters, and the slashing game is one of the reasons why. Nevertheless, there is a reason why Maric is averaging 18/10 a game and Slavko Vranes isn’t, and it isn’t playing time. Maric sets hard screens and has perfect timing on the roll, he is extremely aggressive chasing the ball and finishes with authority close to the basket. He’s an incredibly strong guy, and as mentioned, he has a very good left hand that makes life for the defender a lot more difficult. He also seems to have a “play hard” attitude, imposing his will in one way or the other, and even playing hard through stretches when he is visibly tired but Vujosevic is refusing to bench him.

His passing game is above average for a 2.11 big man. Almost Balkan-school level I would have said. Looks for the kickout for the open three pointer frequently, and also has an eye for the cutter. Solid basketball-IQ. A little more than one assist per game and an assist-turnover ratio of 45 percent surely doesn’t turn our heads, but we must consider how he is utilised by his team, as mostly a finisher inside.

Free throw shooting is a problem. A player like him, who aggressively attacks the basket and will get hacked a considerable number of times, will be helped a lot when he makes a good percentage of his foul line shots, but at about 65 percent throughout his career - not a catastrophic ratio, but not good either - , this is not the case. His shooting process isn’t really one motion, he lifts, stops, and then his arms perform the shooting motion. As for his jumpshot: we haven’t seen much of that at Partizan, except for a baseline dagger versus Olympiacos out of a broken play.

DEFENSE
I find it difficult to classify defensive performance, not so much on-the-ball defense, but the whole off-the-ball process of defending is very complex in European basketball, which is characterised by a lot of screening and where the halfcourt movement is significantly quicker in execution than in any competition I have watched to date. That’s why I find on-court/off-court statistics quite helpful, not as the end of all arguments, but rather as one of many things that are worth spending a few seconds to look at. For example, when Dimitris Diamantidis, the five time Euroleague Defender of the Year, is on the court, his team concedes 14 points less per 40 minutes (which just about equals 70 possessions in an average Euroleague game) compared to when he is off the floor. At the same time, the opposing team shoots 41.1 percent from the field when he is on the court, but 46.7 percent when he is on the bench. Maric’s numbers clearly reflect the impact he has had on his team so far as well: Not only on offense, where Partizan is 11 points better per 40 minutes (70 possessions) when he is on court compared to off court and shoots 50.5 percent when he is on, compared to 41.1 percent when he is off, but also on the defensive end, where we see an oncourt/offcourt difference of 5.42 points in Maric’s favour. Opposing team’s shooting numbers remain basically the same, 0.8 percent worse when Maric is on court - nothing significant after just eight games.

As for observations, defending on the ball, I like what I see. He does a nice job keeping his position while defending the post, really solid positional defense, sticks his arms up in the cylinder while remaining stable with his upper body and usually holding position when the offensive player bumps into him.

Off the ball, he is an average shot blocker, swatting away 5 shots in 8 games, and he is sometimes a little slow rotating over to stop the slashing guard. At the same time, foul management is a key factor in his game. When asked to play 30 or more minutes a game, you cannot take a lot of risks as a big man.

REBOUNDING
I already addressed his offensive rebounding in the offense part of this scouting report, and defensive rebounding is just as good, my observation that he is boxing out with a lot of stability is supported by the numbers: A defensive rebound percentage of 27.233. For those that are not familiar with the numbers, a DREB% of over 27 was as good as fourth among all players in the 08/09 NBA season. There is no data for the Euroleague, I created the numbers after four gamedays this season, but since the sample size is small, the numbers tend to be extreme. As for offensive rebounding, 15.036 percent would easily have topped the NBA last season. Maric’s rebounding is that good, and his team’s is as well: 36.2 percent offensive rebounding (percentage of all missed shots on the offensive end that are offensive rebounds) and 75.4 percent defensive rebounding (percentage of all the opponent’s missed shots that are defensive rebounds).

CONCLUSION
A tough player who won’t blossom as a scorer in any given system, but is an effective weapon when used properly. Outstanding rebounder. Similarities with Pekovic regarding the offensive game are evident, definitely someone who has the ability to do well in the Panathinaikos offense, if they indeed decide to sign him. Panathinaikos or not, a move in summer 2010 is very probable, considering that his contract expires in 2011 and being aware of Partizan’s history of selling players that are still under contract for huge buyouts.