After edging Žalgiris 87-73 in Kaunas, CSKA Moscow are one of four clubs to remain perfect in the Euroleague Top16. They are playing the best basketball of their season. But will it last?

The building of a basketball team is a complicated, multi-dimensional problem to solve, one that Ettore Messina has targeted extensively in his Sports.ru blog during his reign with CSKA Moscow and Real Madrid.

I have to be a tailor who adjusts both offense and defense to suit the team in the best possible way. It also takes time. I have the basic idea, but lots of details need to be adjusted.

Ettore Messina on Sports.ru

New players, Messina says, take three to four months to be fully integrated. It’s been exactly three and a half months now since CSKA Moscow opened their season far east in Vladivostok, and CSKA performance is on the rise. That could be part of a trend, or one of the many ups and downs a basketball season brings.

While the team continues to produce relatively high turnover numbers, passing is at a season-high at this point, as 70 percent assisted field goals (1) indicate, all that on a schedule that is stronger than in the season’s opening quarter and without topscorer Sonny Weems. With two of the world’s finest passers creating offense for a coach who has traditionally put emphasis on passing over dribbling, however, this should come as no surprise.

The exact characteristics of CSKA’s improvement are difficult to assess with the little data we have, so consider this a humble, not-claiming-to-be-perfect attempt.

1. Miloš Teodosić understanding his role

Teodosić is one of European basketball’s most talented playmakers – but also one of its most controversially discussed characters. Knowing how demanding a coach Messina is, CSKA’s coach-playmaker relationship was always going to be one of the big storylines of the season.

The “tailoring” of Teodosić’s role, which involved a temporary shift to more of an off-ball role for extensive stretches (Anton Ponkrashov has been trusted with a surprising amount of ballhandling), has expectedly been a bit of a struggle, but the Serb has performed well in recent games, playing close to 35 minutes in each of his last three games.

Teodosić never took more than ten shots during his first ten games, but it has come clear in recent games that Messina wants his playmaker to be as much a scorer as a facilitator. Miloš is always riding a thin line between taking responsibility and overheating, so I don’t expect this operation to run smoothly through the second half of the season. In the end it will be all about optimising scoring efficiency (on a reasonable usage rate), where he’s doing fairly well at this point of the season (8th among 38 Euroleague point guards with 61 percent true shooting), and cutting down on turnovers, where he’s down at number 34 of 38 Euroleague point guards (the lower the turnovers, the better).

2. Christmas making shots when Nicholas didn’t

Finishing is a major factor and that is exactly what Dionte Christmas does: His assisted field goals to total field goals percentage ranks 9th among 38 Euroleague shooting guards, at 57.1 percent. Players ranking at a comparable level are Nicolas Mazzarino, Brion Rush, Klemen Prepelič – you get the idea: He’s a catch-and-shoot guy. Putting Christmas into an off-ball-role has also helped hide some of his decision-making issues when handling the ball.

Just edging fellow specialists Matt Janning and Marko Popović for 1st spot in minute-and pace-adjusted three point shots made, all that at 58.8 percent, Christmas has proven to be a fantastic upgrade over Drew Nicholas. Nicholas had ended his season in Milan at 34.5 percent from the field and 32.6 percent from long range. His CSKA 2012/13 percentages (31.7% in total and 31.0% from range) were at a similarly disastrous level.

3. The 1-4 pick and roll/pop: Viktor Khryapa as a screener

Again, the data is thin here, but consider this: Viktor Khryapa set a total of two (opportunistic) ballscreens in CSKA’s Euroleague opener versus Lietuvos Rytas as Messina used a conventional 1-5 pick and roll with Sascha Kaun and Nenad Krstić. Khryapa set ten ballscreens in their Top16 victory over ALBA, 18 versus Brose Baskets and 23 on Thursday in Kaunas.

Messina loved using David Andersen in transition side pick and roll/pop during his first CSKA reign. Creating a clean jumpshot, an advantage on a post up (possibly through a switch), a driving lane for the ballhandler or any type of defensive rotation that would allow for a quick ball-swing to the other side of the floor – all that was part of the deal. Today it is up to Teodosić and Khryapa – not Kaun or Krstić – to execute, which they have been doing expertly in recent games.

Against Žalgiris, where Joan Plaza often engages his centers in hard hedge-outs and traps to force the ball out of the hands of the opponent’s key ballhandler, Messina also used Khryapa in high pick and roll/pop sequences, which Žalgiris had lots of difficulties dealing with.

Khryapa, arguably the frontrunner for the Euroleague MVP award, is (all minute- and pace-adjusted) 2nd among Euroleague power forwards in shots created (unassisted field goals plus assists), 1st in assist and 11th in three point field goals made (on 47.5 percent). Teodosić and Khryapa teamed up for 19 pick and roll/pop sequences versus Žalgiris, eight times of which Teodosić passed directly to Khryapa. What a mean trick: Just after you have forced the ball out of the league’s most creative playmaker’s hands you must close-out against its most creative power forward, who happens to be an above-average three point shooter.

Here’s how the plays went in detail:

1. On the opening play, Jankunas forces Teodosić to the side. Darden rotates over to Khryapa, leaving Micov wide open in the corner. Khryapa passes to Micov, pump-fake versus the close out, open midrange shot, two points. (screenshot)
2. Side pick: Khryapa pops out to the baseline, Teodosić finds him with the behind-the-back. Jankunas is helping against Teodosić’s drive. Two points. (screenshot)
3. Jankunas shows, Jaaber slips, so they communicate a switch. CSKA know exactly what they’re doing and work the ball to Khryapa in the post (versus Jaaber). Khryapa finds Teodosić for the wide open three. Misses the first, but offensive rebound and makes the second – three points. (screenshot)
4. Jankunas, out of respect for Khryapa’s jumpshot, does not fully show on this one, hence an open driving lane for Teodosić – two points. (screenshot)
5. This has the characteristics of a staggered screen. Creates a close out situation for Khryapa, who is attacked by three players. Khryapa and Teodosić interchange passes before Khryapa works the ball to Christmas in the corner, who makes the corner three. (screenshot)
6. This is the single play that doesn’t produce a result (shot, turnover, foul). Jankunas pushes Khryapa to the side. Looks like a foul. Teodosić swings the ball to the other side, but no defensive rotation forced. (screenshot)
7. They go under the initial screen but over the re-screen. Teodosić has Christmas wide open in the strong side corner but opts for Khryapa, who has a semi-open look but commits a turnover on the high-low feed. One of the few sequences where they should have done better. (screenshot)
8. Here’s the hard hedge & trap. Khryapa rolls, forcing a rotation off of Krstić, who misses a very makable shot from his preferred spot on the floor. (screenshot)
9. Again, no help off of Khryapa by Lavrinovic on the pick and pop, giving Teodosić an open lane and the easy two-pointer. (screenshot)
10. Hedge & trap on the side pick and roll, Teodosić to Khryapa for the open baseline jumper – two points. (screenshot)
11. Same situation but a switch this time, giving Khryapa a post up mismatch against Lafayette. Lavrinovic rotates a couple of meters off of Kaun, Khryapa, the great passer he is, uses the short passing window for the dish to Kaun, who gets hacked. Makes one of two. (screenshot)
12. Delas fouls Khryapa on the screen. (screenshot)
13. Jaaber goes under the side screen this time, giving Teodosić a good look from long range, which he misses. (screenshot)
14. Another foul on the screen by Delas. (screenshot)
15. Exact copy of sequence 1). Teodosić to Khryapa to Micov for the open J. But a more helpless look on Plaza’s face this time. (screenshot)
16. The third foul committed against Khryapa while he is setting the screen, as Jankunas tries to force him outside (to allow Jaaber to go under). (screenshot)
17. Khryapa commits an offensive foul on Kaukenas on the roll. (screenshot)
18. Hedge & trap on Teodosić, first pass to Khryapa, who passes to Micov in the corner for the wide open three point shot. Misses. (screenshot)
19. Foul on Teodosić on the trap. (screenshot)

Upcoming schedule

The upcoming schedule – games against VEF Riga, Unicaja Malaga, Spartak St.Petersburg, Real Madrid, Žalgiris, Unics Kazan and Panathinaikos all within the space of one month – should offer a better understanding of where CSKA really stand.

(1) The real number should be slightly lower. Since statkeepers attribute assists to free throws these days.